Posted on 11/05/2012 7:48:23 PM PST by Numbers Guy
I think it shows Romney is willing to keep working...good sign....while BO is off to play basketball....
They definitely did so in 2000, esp in Florida. I remember when they called Florida for Gore. I pulled in the county by county data from Florida from 1996 and 1992 and started projecting final totals for Florida based on percent of precincts in -- and my conclusion was "this is too close to call".
Around 2 a.m. they called Florida for Bush (largely due to a clerical error), but I looked at the numbers again, and it was clear that it was too close to call.
The lesson to me was that these people rely far too much on exit polls and guesswork and not enough on the actual numbers. Since then I've set up spreadsheets with county by county results for key states and pull in the results as they come in and see where things are headed. It's easier when it's a one-key-state election (like the Scott Walker recall), but it's really the only way to get a clear picture.
The real key, especially for 50-50 counties, is how far ahead or behind the candidate is running compared to his same-party counterpart in the most recent close election. If Romney, for instance, is running within 1 point of Bush 2004 in various closely contested Ohio counties, that's a good sign (because then it comes down to turnout and margin in Cuyahoga and Obama's going to have to come close to his 2008 turnout *and* margin).
Ugh.
lots of scenarios....
I hope people are right....if we get Ohio its over..(if we hold Col, et al)
I have to tell myself and I guess we all have to is that Romney is a master businessman and has handled this campaign suberbly and paced just right....we have to believe that he and his people know what they're doing....
just in case...LORD GOD please send your grace.....
NOT GOOD.
btw....I just love these “insiders” who remain nameless....
If Oiho votes for the Contamination ill never eat Skyline Chili again.
I take very seriously his wife's declaration that "this man will not fail." I think it is fully in his character to keep on even though he is confident of victory. I think that is part of his moral character. It certainly is sustained by his biography.
Or my favorite: New Hampshire +1 vote in Maine + Washington DC?
this puppy is dead!!!
325++
53 in the senate and
no losses in the house
Conservatives are going to have the weirdest smiles on their faces for the longest time
happy new year everyone
the bloody nightmare is over
LLS
That sums up the differences between the two right there.
I don't think we are going to see Mitt Romney out on the golf course or playing basketball all that much when he gets in. Mitt Romney has worked all his life. Obama has never held a real job and just like your average shiftless bum, he feels that every time he lifts a finger to do something, he deserves a vacation or a reward.
You forgot one:
7. NH(4) + IA(6) + NV(6)
Would rather not have the tie, as it could lead to Biden being VP.
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