Posted on 11/05/2012 12:08:15 PM PST by RobinMasters
Updating yesterday's TRR post -- CNN released a poll on Sunday that showed independents breaking for Mitt Romney 59%, with 37% for Barack Obama. (These numbers are buried on page 30 of the CNN report.) Because CNN assessed the likely electorate as 41% Democratic, 30% Republican and 29% independent, this translated into a 49%/49% tie. But this breakdown should be called the "unlikely voters."
Using the more realistic Rasmussen and Gallup party ID breakdown, with Republicans holding a slight edge in party ID, a 22 point lead among independents on election day would give Mr. Romney around 53% of the popular vote and a victory margin of 7-8% after third parties are factored in.
The election will come down to how the independents vote, and so far polls show them breaking for Mr. Romney. If there are any that show Mr. Obama with a significant lead I have not seen them.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
Roy is singing, “It’s over”.
Praying....
Peggy Noonan, yes THAT Peggy Noonan, Obama kiss asser since 2008, just wrote an article for the Washington Post saying that Romney will win and win BIG..so coming from her it means something since her lips have been firmly pressed on Obama’s behind for years
“Republicans holding a slight edge in party ID,” Does this guy think 5.8% is a “slight edge in Party ID?”
Romney needs to win by more than seven.
It should fall 65 - 33 - 2.
If Romney’s win is not huge huge huge, the left will go even nutser than they are. (Yea, I know they will go nuts but they can’t claim cheating with any honesty [yea that made me laugh - honesty])
Dare I say it, even under my breath?
This could be epic blowout, on the scale of Reagan over Carter, Johnson over Goldwater, or FDR over Herbert Hoover.
But that may be way too much to hope for, given the dumbing-down of the US electorate, many of whome are more interested in “DWTS” or the standings of the NFL, than how much in taxes they are assessed or their take-home after insurance and withholding.
The Election Day results will be only the first of many struggles to get a half-way accurate estimate of the temper of the US voters. Expect widespread fraud in many Democrat-majority precincts, with perhaps 125% participation, in “forgotten” ballot boxes discovered after the state totals are too low, and the wholesale discarding of absentee votes from military stationed overseas. In close elections, the results will be contested, and recounts will go on and on until the Democrat is declared the winner, but surprisingly, never does a Republican win on these recounts.
Where outcomes cannot be determined by mere physical recounts, the determination of the results will be thrown to the courts to decide, like Florida in 2000. Should the decision favor the Republican party as a whole, Democrats will try to have the results declared “illegitimate” and take to the streets, expressing “civil disobedience”. Very possibly, the challenges will take the country past the scheduled vote in the Electoral College, and the new President may not be seated in January as scheduled.
And of course the entire northeastern part of the US will claim they could not get sufficient time to properly conduct an election in the wake of Superstorm Sandy.
The real fight is just about to begin.
The election process for President has become so contaminated, that the states should revert to having the Legislatures vote on President. Do away with the popular vote. That’s the way it’s supposed to work anyway.
If one doesn’t have the energy or motivation to vote for state legislators, then too bad. State elections should be more important then they are now, and this is one way to do it.
41% Democratic, 30% Republican and 29% independent,
CNN, the GOP has a +6% over Dems. Your BIAS is showing!!
Other than fake polls and fake narrative, all of the evidence - all of it - points to the simple conclusion.
What doubt I've had - is 'can the media be even sort of right? Are human beings THIS STUPID?????' ... instinct says no. But it's tough to be against any collective hypnosis. Ras and Gallup know the truth - but even they are hiding in the herd - at the fringes on the side of where things will go - but still hiding.
The real fight is just about to begin.
Dead on. I believe the Tea Party - a reaction more to GW and GH - a proper moral inventory for Republicans ... more than it was a reaction to liberals, although liberals by implication, had this commitment - and were looking inside the party for blame, rather than without. Frankly, I didn't, when they started.
As Republicans and Conservatives (and non-crazy liberian constitutionalists) ... we always knew the intellectual concept of that against which the Constitution is a warning, but this is the first time I really smell fear in the air - that it stopped being a mere debate, and starting being a real fight
I predict this is the last stand. It will work, and it will maintain the Republic for another 20 or 30 years, but demographics doom the current physical incarnation of freedom. Freedom will remain, but I do not believe it's next rebirth will be 'these 50 states' ... there won't be much blood, then next will not a peaceful but a revolution of ideas.
There will be a relatively peaceful secession/split, newly drawn Constitutions, one of which will deeply resemble the original except that it will include some lessons in the form of more protections of individual liberty that take into account modern leaks in the foundation.
The other Constitution will last the other faction a single generation or two, at which time the nation will re-unite after mass population exodus (the prototypes now are CA and MA.)
There are broad cycles in the history of man, especially in his relation to government and governing himself. It is unwise to get lost in the detail of those cycles that peaked in revolution, and attribute the revolution to the details of the story (Slavery, Taxation without Representation, that which the Magna Charta sought to solve) ...
The issue is always enslavement of the individual by the collective, and that theme will never leave mankind.
This revolution will not be caused by 'those liberals going to far' ... it's source will be demographic trends. There is a dynamic in the US and the west which runs deeper than, and is one layer abstracted and more powerful, than the inter-generational swings in the country's political leaning.
So yes, the fight has just (on Wednesday) begun (or been resumed) - but only for this segment of the match between freedom and enslavement, but ultimately between good and evil.
The incarnation, the physical appearance, the manifestation ... of freedom ... will not in 4 generations be the USA as we know it. But it's underlying principals will be the same, and it will be an improvement, and it will lift up the rest of the world.
It's just wise to remember the bigger picture - to stick to eternal principles rather than momentary manifestations.
For many years, the Republic will be able to withstand the demographic and migratory shifts. But not for long - not for more than 2 - 4 generations. This is not a 'defeat by the liberals' as they like to call it in their short term analysis of political trends. But they are right - the death of the west is nigh. That's the bad news. The better news it it's time for the 'West' to shake off it's baggage and renew itself. It was never about 'the West' ... it was about the principles.
And, though we are conditioned to think so - not all revolutions are bloody - although the commitment will rise to that of being prepared to bleed, which is the very commitment that will avoid blood.
I believe the next revolution will resemble more what the Free State Project sought to accomplish.
But hell - that's not for many years to come - in the meantime ... we all need to savor the fact that there can be no loss when the principles are eternal, or God's. I believe that while Mitt is not an improvement on Reagan, the wave that is lifting Mitt, and the repudiation of Obama ... the principles and cyclic as well as cumulative forces at play in this election are simply purer, wiser, more concentrated and ultimately more enlightened than in Reagan's day. There is more (and deeper) capital 'T' Truth operating now, merely manifesting as 'this election.'
So it's all good :-) Only meant to write a sentence or two. Sorry for editing errors ...
‘But that may be way too much to hope for, given the dumbing-down of the US electorate, many of whome are more interested in “DWTS” or the standings of the NFL, than how much in taxes they are assessed or their take-home after insurance and withholding.”
You are correct, however I do worry about my taxes vs take home. I need to know if I can buy more tickets for NFL games. :)
What does the popular vote mean? Absolutely nothing. Presidential elections are State by State.
I am hoping that RR has motivated so many people that there will be a blow out and that we can get election laws that insure that there is one person one vote and tough prison sentences for those that break voting laws. Breaking voting laws to me is treason, no different.
My opinions on Romney and Ryan have changed substantially since the days when Michelle Bachmann was still in the running. I think she is a wonderful person and would have made a great president and still some day might do that. I also like Ryan and think that if Romney is successful as president that he may get his turn in the Oval office. The thought of 16 years with adults in charge of the White House really pleases me. I'm starting to read a lot by people who have met Romney and have been inspired by his honesty and wholesomeness. I'm starting to question a lot of what I have read here about him. Only time will tell.
I'm old enough that it means that if Romney and Ryan both get two terms that we will have Republican president for the rest of my life. When my number is up I will go down with a smile.
The dirty Democrats will do all they can to steal the election but except in Ohio they will have a tough time. NY, NJ, MD and IL will all stuff their ballot boxes, I only worry about Ohio. It only matters in a close election, I hardly see how they can steal more than 3% of the vote. I'm hoping RR takes Ohio by 5%, if they do we're home free.
I used to be ABO but now I'm becoming a RR.
Romney’s win will be like Nixon’s reelection in 1972, except he will win Mass, where he was once governor.
Wow! Aamazing post. Maybe too the Free Cities projects will be models of freedom.
C.S. Lewis, wow .... don’t see enough of him here or anywhere. Reminds me of St. Augustine in that he nailed everything, without making you think you had to believe in anything as a kid when you read it, you just understood - no explicit dogma ... then, upon reflection, you kind of had to believe in something.
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