[tatown]

I find it almost impossible to believe that Romney has ANY chance of losing if he is really up by ~9 points among indies, regardless of what the top line number says.

[BlueStateRightist]

Yep. Taken together the polls (national and swing state) show Romney is ahead. We simply can’t yet ascertain a trend in either direction. I’d take a 51-48 margin for Romney, as the EV would certainly follow to >269.

[Rumierules]

I find it almost impossible to believe that Romney has ANY chance of losing if he is really up by ~9 points among indies, regardless of what the top line number says.
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Anyone know what Obama’s margin was with indies in 2008?

[Personal Responsibility]

I find it almost impossible to believe that Romney has ANY chance of losing if he is really up by ~9 points among indies, regardless of what the top line number says.

Don’t we hear, every election cycle, that “RINO X is the only one who can win over the moderates and independents”? and then we hear “40% vote our way, 40% vote their way. Elections are won by the remaining 20%”

If we’re really up 9 on those remaining 20% independents and we lose that is the end of that logic. It can’t be both ways. Either:

1)independents are required to win the elections, we win them and we win.

or

2) independents are required to win the election and we lose and that “logic” is proven wrong.

It can’t be that we win Independents by 9% and lose. Not possible.

[Longbow1969]

I find it almost impossible to believe that Romney has ANY chance of losing if he is really up by ~9 points among indies, regardless of what the top line number says.

You realize it is possible that more conservatives simply identify themselves as independent these days. The Republican brand took a beating in the last few years of the Bush administration. More right leaning folks (such as Tea Party supporters) self identifying as independent now would explain why polling shows so many more Democrats than Republicans, AND it explains why Romney is winning the independent vote in so many polls. It makes pretty good sense if you think about it.

I'm going by the RCP average which has been very accurate the last 2 presidential cycles (basically since it started). It has Romney up .6 at this moment in time. I'd bet the election will be within 1 percentage point of the final RCP average (as it was in 2004 and 2008).