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1 posted on 03/06/2012 9:18:07 PM PST by LonelyCon
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To: LonelyCon
This is what has to happen if either of them has a real chance to stop Mitt Romney. Rightnow, winning only 40% of the vote, Romney is taking 53% of the delegates. This will lead him to the nomination if undeterred.

Here's my analysis from my latest update to my GOP Primary Tracker Site:

Well, Super Tuesday is now over. 10 States held primaries or caucuses. Mitt Romney won 6 of the 10. Rick Santorum won 3 of the 10, and Newt Gingrich one 1 of 10, his home state of Georgia.. A amajority was one by a single candidate in only tree of the states. All by Mitt Romney with MAss at 72%, Idaho at 62% and Virginia at 60%. Of the total of 23 contests held to date, Romney has won an absolute majority 4 times, adding Nevada to the above at just over 50%. The only other majority win was Santorum in Missouri with 57%. To date, Romney ahs one 14 contests, Santorum has one 7 contests, and Newt Gingrich has one 2 contests. Ron Paul has not one any.

In the popular vote, to date Romney leads with over 3.2 million votes which is right at 40%. Santorum is second with 2 million votes or 26% , Gingrich is third with 1.8 million votes or 22% and Ron Paul is fourth with 900 thousand votes or 11%.

The effectiveness of Romney's campaign however, can be measured in his delegate count. Although he has only one 40% of the popular vot, this has translated to date into 431 delgates or 54% of the total delegates awarded to dat. Santorum follows with 176 delegates or 21%, Gingrich with 126 or 15% and Paul with 79 delegates or 10%. At this rate, Romney has a good chance of winning the delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the convention, but it will go on until late in the season. .

So, after Santorum's three win in February, Romney bounced back with five straight wins. On March 6th, Super Tuesday, Romney added six more wins, Santorum three more, and Gingrich one more. Romney is estatic about coming from behind and winning Ohio, though it was a near thing. Because of the closeness of the Ohio votes, and his other three wins, Santorum vows to stay in. Gingrich because of his strong win in his home state of Georgia also vows to stay in, and there was never any question, even with no wins, that Ron Paul will stay in on principle.

In my opinion, the tough primary season, despite punduts prognostications, continues to strengthen the candidates, keeping the GOP message at the top of the news cycle, and preparing the nominee to fight Obama. Any of the four would be orders of magnitude better than Barack Obama and his dismal failures. Here's the GOPTracking results now after Super Tuesday.

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Season Tracker (including caucuses) - LAST UPDATE: March 7, 2012

2012 GOP Primaries Date Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul Ron Huntsman Rick Perry Michele Bachman Herman Cain Totals
Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Votes % Del's Votes % Del's Votes % Del's Votes Del's
Iowa 1/3/2012 29,805 24.58% 7 - 16,163 13.33% 2 - 29,839 24.61% 7 1 26,036 21.47% 7 - 739 0.61% 0 12,557 10.36% 0 6,046 4.99% 0 58 0.05% 0 121,243 23
New Hamp 1/10/2012 97,601 39.81% 7 1 23,291 9.50% 0 - 23,362 9.53% 0 - 56,872 23.20% 3 - 41,783 17.04% 2 1,764 0.72% 0 350 0.14% 0 160 0.07% 0 245,183 12
South Caro 1/21/2012 168,152 27.86% 2 - 244,133 40.44% 23 1 102,492 16.98% 0 - 78,362 12.98% 0 - 1,173 0.19% 0 2,534 0.42% 0 491 0.08% 0 6,326 1.05% 0 603,663 25
Florida 1/31/2012 776,059 46.44% 50 2 534,040 31.96% 0 - 223,208 13.36% 0 - 117,410 7.03% 0 - 6,199 0.37% 0 6,773 0.41% 0 3,967 0.24% 0 3,492 0.21% 0 1,671,148 50
Nevada 2/4/2012 16,486 50.12% 14 3 6,956 21.15% 6 - 3,277 9.96% 3 - 6,175 18.77% 5 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 32,894 28
Main   2,190 39.65% 9 4 349 6.32% 0 - 989 17.90% 3 - 1,996 36.13% 7 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 5,524 19
Colorado 2/7/2012 22,875 35.00% 13 - 8,394 12.84% 1 - 26,372 40.35% 17 2 7,713 11.80% 1 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 65,354 32
Minnesota   8,096 16.97% 2 - 5,134 10.76% 1 - 21,436 44.94% 25 3 13,030 27.32% 9 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 47,696 14
Missouri   63,826 26.24% 0 - 9,859 4.05% 0 - 138,957 57.12% 0 4 30,641 12.59% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 243,283 0
Arizona 2/28/2012 216,805 47.99% 29 5 74,110 16.40% 0 - 122,088 27.03% 0 - 38,753 8.58% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 451,756 29
Michigan   409,899 42.34% 16 6 65,016 6.72% 0 - 377,521 38.99% 14 - 115,712 11.95% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 968,148 30
Washington 3/3/2012 19,111 37.65% 30 7 5,221 10.28% 0 - 12,089 23.81% 5 - 12,594 24.81% 5 - 924 1.82% 0 437 0.86% 0 198 0.39% 0 190 0.37% 0 50,764 40
Wyoming   822 38.99% 10 8 165 7.83% 1 - 673 31.93% 9 - 439 20.83% 6 - 3 0.14% 0 2 0.09% 0 2 0.09% 0 2 0.09% 0 2,108 26
Alaska 3/6/2012 4,285 32.52% 8 9 1,856 14.09% 3 - 3,860 29.30% 7 - 3,175 24.10% 6 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 13,176 24
Georgia S 225,926 25.18% 15 - 417,364 47.81% 47 2 172,473 19.76% 10 - 57,125 6.54% 4 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 872,888 76
Idaho u 27,514 61.61% 32 10 940 2.11% 0 - 8,115 18.17% 0 - 8,086 18.11% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 44,655 32
Massachusetts p 260,509 73.29% 41 11 16,756 4.71% 0 - 43,6114 12.27% 0 - 34,575 9.735 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 355,455 41
N. Dakota  e 2,691 23.71% 7 - 961 8.48% 2 - 4,510 39.74% 11 5 3,186 28.07% 8 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 11,349 28
Ohio r 453,927 38.93% 32 12 174,606 14.78% 10 - 441,908 37.42% 20 - 110,633 9.37% 4 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 1,181,074 66
Oklahoma   80,291 28.34% 13 - 78,686 27.77% 13 - 96,759 34.15% 14 6 27,572 9.73% 13 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 283,208 43
Tennessee T 153,889 28.46% 18 - 132,142 24.43% 12 - 204,978 37.90% 26 7 49,782 9.21% 2 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 540,791 58
Vermont u 22,533 41.01% 9 13 4,606 8.39% 0 - 13,401 24.39% 4 - 14,407 26.22% 4 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 54,949 17
Virginia e 158,050 59.52% 44 14 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 107,470 40.48% 5 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 265,520 49
Kansas 3/10/2012                                                           40
Guam                                                             9
Virgin Islands                                                             9
Alabama 3/13/2012                                                           50
Am Somoa                                                             9
Hawaii                                                             20
Mississippi                                                             40
Missouri 3/17/2012                                                           52
Puerto Rico 3/18/2024                                                           23
Illinois 3/20/2012                                                           69
Louisiana 3/24/2012                                                           46
DC 4/3/2012                                                           19
Maryland                                                             37
Wisconsin                                                             42
Texas                                                             155
                                                               
At large Del's       23       4       1       0       0     0     0         28
TOTALS   3,221,342 39.61% 431 14 1,820,751 22.39% 39 2 2,071,921 25.48% 85 7 921,744 11.33% 79 0 50,821 1.13% 2 24,067 0.53% 0 11,054 0.25% 0 10,228 0.23% 0 8,131,928 814
To Date % of Delegates Romney 53% Gingrich 15% Santorum 21% Paul 10% Huntsman <1% Perry 0% Bachman 0% Cain 0%
In my estimation, Super Tuesday though certainly not a "knock out" by any means, represented a moderatley strong showing and victory for Romney. He took the lion's share of delegates and is on a path to outright win the nomination. Santorum had a decent night, but it had to be disappointing. If he had one Ohio and his margins had been better in Okalahoma and Tennessee, he would have had an outstanding night. Newt Gingrich has to be strongly disappointed. He won his home state by 20 ponits (but to be fair, Romney won his true home state by 60 points), but then Newt finished 3rd or fourth in all other octests and had a much smaller delegate count to show for it. For Paul, it was to be a huge disappointment. Though finishing second in a couple of races, his overall delegate count, even in the caucus states was meager at best. He was hoping to win North Dakota and gain more delegates overall, but none of that happened.

Romney will most probably at this point begin to pivot and focus more and more on going head to head with Obama and consentrating on finding a VP pick that will solidify as much of the party and base as he can for the general election.

Only by uniting, can Santorum and Gingrich now prevent Romney from having a real strong chance of winning the nomination outright. At this point I think the best they can hope for is a brokered convention...otherwise, mathematically, I believe Romney will ultimately eak out a win...probably at the 50-55% range of delegates needed. It seems at this point, for whatever reason, that Gingrich and Santorum are unwilling to unite, so they will continue to split the more conservative vote and allow Romney to win more contests and win a larger proportion of delegates in so doing. In the end, I will support any of the GOP candidates, whichever wins the nomination against the abject marxist ideolog, Obama, as any one of them will be far better than Barack Obama. Four more years of his leadership and fundamental change could easily put this nation in a economic, debt, foreign policy, and energy hole we will have a very difficult and very painful chance of digging our way out of...and at the const of decades of burden placed on our children and grandchildren.

If you have a mind, please ping others to this GOP Primary Tracker page.

America is at the crossroads of history and we must choose aright
(http://www.jeffhead.com/crossroads.htm)

Jeff Head
March 7, 2012Well, here's my analysis from my latest update to my GOP Primary Tracker Site:

Well, Super Tuesday is now over. 10 States held primaries or caucuses. Mitt Romney won 6 of the 10. Rick Santorum won 3 of the 10, and Newt Gingrich one 1 of 10, his home state of Georgia.. A amajority was one by a single candidate in only tree of the states. All by Mitt Romney with MAss at 72%, Idaho at 62% and Virginia at 60%. Of the total of 23 contests held to date, Romney has won an absolute majority 4 times, adding Nevada to the above at just over 50%. The only other majority win was Santorum in Missouri with 57%. To date, Romney ahs one 14 contests, Santorum has one 7 contests, and Newt Gingrich has one 2 contests. Ron Paul has not one any.

In the popular vote, to date Romney leads with over 3.2 million votes which is right at 40%. Santorum is second with 2 million votes or 26% , Gingrich is third with 1.8 million votes or 22% and Ron Paul is fourth with 900 thousand votes or 11%.

The effectiveness of Romney's campaign however, can be measured in his delegate count. Although he has only one 40% of the popular vot, this has translated to date into 431 delgates or 54% of the total delegates awarded to dat. Santorum follows with 176 delegates or 21%, Gingrich with 126 or 15% and Paul with 79 delegates or 10%. At this rate, Romney has a good chance of winning the delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the convention, but it will go on until late in the season. .

So, after Santorum's three win in February, Romney bounced back with five straight wins. On March 6th, Super Tuesday, Romney added six more wins, Santorum three more, and Gingrich one more. Romney is estatic about coming from behind and winning Ohio, though it was a near thing. Because of the closeness of the Ohio votes, and his other three wins, Santorum vows to stay in. Gingrich because of his strong win in his home state of Georgia also vows to stay in, and there was never any question, even with no wins, that Ron Paul will stay in on principle.

In my opinion, the tough primary season, despite punduts prognostications, continues to strengthen the candidates, keeping the GOP message at the top of the news cycle, and preparing the nominee to fight Obama. Any of the four would be orders of magnitude better than Barack Obama and his dismal failures. Here's the GOPTracking results now after Super Tuesday.

2012 GOP Presidential Primary Season Tracker (including caucuses) - LAST UPDATE: March 7, 2012

2012 GOP Primaries Date Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul Ron Huntsman Rick Perry Michele Bachman Herman Cain Totals
Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Win Votes % Del's Votes % Del's Votes % Del's Votes % Del's Votes Del's
Iowa 1/3/2012 29,805 24.58% 7 - 16,163 13.33% 2 - 29,839 24.61% 7 1 26,036 21.47% 7 - 739 0.61% 0 12,557 10.36% 0 6,046 4.99% 0 58 0.05% 0 121,243 23
New Hamp 1/10/2012 97,601 39.81% 7 1 23,291 9.50% 0 - 23,362 9.53% 0 - 56,872 23.20% 3 - 41,783 17.04% 2 1,764 0.72% 0 350 0.14% 0 160 0.07% 0 245,183 12
South Caro 1/21/2012 168,152 27.86% 2 - 244,133 40.44% 23 1 102,492 16.98% 0 - 78,362 12.98% 0 - 1,173 0.19% 0 2,534 0.42% 0 491 0.08% 0 6,326 1.05% 0 603,663 25
Florida 1/31/2012 776,059 46.44% 50 2 534,040 31.96% 0 - 223,208 13.36% 0 - 117,410 7.03% 0 - 6,199 0.37% 0 6,773 0.41% 0 3,967 0.24% 0 3,492 0.21% 0 1,671,148 50
Nevada 2/4/2012 16,486 50.12% 14 3 6,956 21.15% 6 - 3,277 9.96% 3 - 6,175 18.77% 5 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 32,894 28
Main   2,190 39.65% 9 4 349 6.32% 0 - 989 17.90% 3 - 1,996 36.13% 7 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 5,524 19
Colorado 2/7/2012 22,875 35.00% 13 - 8,394 12.84% 1 - 26,372 40.35% 17 2 7,713 11.80% 1 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 65,354 32
Minnesota   8,096 16.97% 2 - 5,134 10.76% 1 - 21,436 44.94% 25 3 13,030 27.32% 9 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 47,696 14
Missouri   63,826 26.24% 0 - 9,859 4.05% 0 - 138,957 57.12% 0 4 30,641 12.59% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 243,283 0
Arizona 2/28/2012 216,805 47.99% 29 5 74,110 16.40% 0 - 122,088 27.03% 0 - 38,753 8.58% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 451,756 29
Michigan   409,899 42.34% 16 6 65,016 6.72% 0 - 377,521 38.99% 14 - 115,712 11.95% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 968,148 30
Washington 3/3/2012 19,111 37.65% 30 7 5,221 10.28% 0 - 12,089 23.81% 5 - 12,594 24.81% 5 - 924 1.82% 0 437 0.86% 0 198 0.39% 0 190 0.37% 0 50,764 40
Wyoming   822 38.99% 10 8 165 7.83% 1 - 673 31.93% 9 - 439 20.83% 6 - 3 0.14% 0 2 0.09% 0 2 0.09% 0 2 0.09% 0 2,108 26
Alaska 3/6/2012 4,285 32.52% 8 9 1,856 14.09% 3 - 3,860 29.30% 7 - 3,175 24.10% 6 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 13,176 24
Georgia S 225,926 25.18% 15 - 417,364 47.81% 47 2 172,473 19.76% 10 - 57,125 6.54% 4 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 872,888 76
Idaho u 27,514 61.61% 32 10 940 2.11% 0 - 8,115 18.17% 0 - 8,086 18.11% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 44,655 32
Massachusetts p 260,509 73.29% 41 11 16,756 4.71% 0 - 43,6114 12.27% 0 - 34,575 9.735 0 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 355,455 41
N. Dakota  e 2,691 23.71% 7 - 961 8.48% 2 - 4,510 39.74% 11 5 3,186 28.07% 8 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 11,349 28
Ohio r 453,927 38.93% 32 12 174,606 14.78% 10 - 441,908 37.42% 20 - 110,633 9.37% 4 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 1,181,074 66
Oklahoma   80,291 28.34% 13 - 78,686 27.77% 13 - 96,759 34.15% 14 6 27,572 9.73% 13 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 283,208 43
Tennessee T 153,889 28.46% 18 - 132,142 24.43% 12 - 204,978 37.90% 26 7 49,782 9.21% 2 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 540,791 58
Vermont u 22,533 41.01% 9 13 4,606 8.39% 0 - 13,401 24.39% 4 - 14,407 26.22% 4 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 54,949 17
Virginia e 158,050 59.52% 44 14 0 0.00% 0 - 0 0.00% 0 - 107,470 40.48% 5 - 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 0 0.00% 0 265,520 49
Kansas 3/10/2012                                                           40
Guam                                                             9
Virgin Islands                                                             9
Alabama 3/13/2012                                                           50
Am Somoa                                                             9
Hawaii                                                             20
Mississippi                                                             40
Missouri 3/17/2012                                                           52
Puerto Rico 3/18/2024                                                           23
Illinois 3/20/2012                                                           69
Louisiana 3/24/2012                                                           46
DC 4/3/2012                                                           19
Maryland                                                             37
Wisconsin                                                             42
Texas                                                             155
                                                               
At large Del's       23       4       1       0       0     0     0         28
TOTALS   3,221,342 39.61% 431 14 1,820,751 22.39% 39 2 2,071,921 25.48% 85 7 921,744 11.33% 79 0 50,821 1.13% 2 24,067 0.53% 0 11,054 0.25% 0 10,228 0.23% 0 8,131,928 814
To Date % of Delegates Romney 53% Gingrich 15% Santorum 21% Paul 10% Huntsman <1% Perry 0% Bachman 0% Cain 0%
In my estimation, Super Tuesday though certainly not a "knock out" by any means, represented a moderatley strong showing and victory for Romney. He took the lion's share of delegates and is on a path to outright win the nomination. Santorum had a decent night, but it had to be disappointing. If he had one Ohio and his margins had been better in Okalahoma and Tennessee, he would have had an outstanding night. Newt Gingrich has to be strongly disappointed. He won his home state by 20 ponits (but to be fair, Romney won his true home state by 60 points), but then Newt finished 3rd or fourth in all other octests and had a much smaller delegate count to show for it. For Paul, it was to be a huge disappointment. Though finishing second in a couple of races, his overall delegate count, even in the caucus states was meager at best. He was hoping to win North Dakota and gain more delegates overall, but none of that happened.

Romney will most probably at this point begin to pivot and focus more and more on going head to head with Obama and consentrating on finding a VP pick that will solidify as much of the party and base as he can for the general election.

Only by uniting, can Santorum and Gingrich now prevent Romney from having a real strong chance of winning the nomination outright. At this point I think the best they can hope for is a brokered convention...otherwise, mathematically, I believe Romney will ultimately eak out a win...probably at the 50-55% range of delegates needed. It seems at this point, for whatever reason, that Gingrich and Santorum are unwilling to unite, so they will continue to split the more conservative vote and allow Romney to win more contests and win a larger proportion of delegates in so doing. In the end, I will support any of the GOP candidates, whichever wins the nomination against the abject marxist ideolog, Obama, as any one of them will be far better than Barack Obama. Four more years of his leadership and fundamental change could easily put this nation in a economic, debt, foreign policy, and energy hole we will have a very difficult and very painful chance of digging our way out of...and at the const of decades of burden placed on our children and grandchildren.

If you have a mind, please ping others to this GOP Primary Tracker page.

America is at the crossroads of history and we must choose aright
(http://www.jeffhead.com/crossroads.htm)

Jeff Head
March 7, 2012

210 posted on 03/07/2012 10:42:38 AM PST by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: LonelyCon

Urgent reply to LonelyCon.............NUTS!


217 posted on 03/07/2012 11:08:10 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: LonelyCon

I thought it would be better for Santorum to step out with low support from public in the earlier months, but with more delegates in his hands, and Gingrich is behind, I now believe it will be more realistic for Gingrich to step out and unite with Santorum. It is time for either to step down, and the candidate that will have more chance to win against Romney is Santorum which has prove his strength with more delegates. Gingrich will be a good Vice President to pull the string, while Santorum as President will lay out the strategic policies based on conservative values.

By the way, in the earlier days, Freepers were crying the candidates are not conservative enough, and when the most conservative figure Santorum gains an advantage, some people registered on Free Republic began to claim family and religious values should be personal. This is double standard, and I blame there are psyops being played here to kick out conservative candidates from the race.


248 posted on 03/07/2012 9:50:24 PM PST by Wiz
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To: LonelyCon

Rick and Newt should join forces. Both would even each other out nicely.
Rick is over playing his hand now and should shut his piehole unless he is attacking Obama or Mitt.
I dont care who is VP or POTUS between the two, as long as I dont have to need shower after voting for Mitt like I did for McCain.


255 posted on 03/11/2012 1:11:30 PM PDT by Yorlik803 (better to die on your feet than live on your knees.)
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