You are right on. The reason Santorum lost by so much in 2006 were people were turned off by his overzealous, sanctimonious views on religion. Period. His book ‘It Takes a Family’ had just come out.
Would he have won in a bad year for Repubs? Probably not. But sitting Senators do not lose by 19 points (to weak opponents) in a state that is more purple than blue.
During this same election, Snowe won in (blue) Maine with 74%, Ensign in (swing) Nevada with 55%.
The idea that he can win in swing states (after losing by 19 most recently) does not pass the smell test.
Thank you, that is the point.