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The poll in Missouri demonstrates logically a way that, if you want to beat Romney, having the 1st-place guy drop out strengthens your chance of doing so.

PPP Poll Missouri

In Missouri, the 3-way matchup has Gingrich ahead of Romney by 6%, good but within the margin of error. Santorum is behind Gingrich by 4%. (Gingrich 30%, Santorum 26%, Romney 24%). Conventional wisdom says if Santorum drops out, Gingrich runs away with the election.

But they polled head-to-head matchups:

Head-to head, Gingrich would defeat Romney in the state, 43-42, but Santorum would, 50-37.

Got that -- Gingrich ahead of Santorum by 4, and ROmney by 6. But without Santorum, Gingrich is essentially tied with Romney, losing 5% of his lead. If Gingrich drops out, Santorum runs away with the election, winning by 13%, and getting a clear majority.

So, if the poll accurately reflects what would happen in the election, GIngrich, the front-runner, should drop out so that Santorum can get an easy win over Romney, and win a majority of the votes.

That is what I call a "logical argument" for why it might be better for those of us who want to be Romney if the guy polling better drops out -- because the guy polling better has high negatives and a ceiling below 50%, while the guy polling 2nd is widely liked and has a much higher ceiling of support.

The situation in Ohio polling is similar, although Gingrich slightly improves there if Santorum is gone:

The primary is a three-way race between Gingrich (26%), Romney (25%), and Santorum (22%), with Paul at 11%. Gingrich would top Romney, 42-39, but Santorum would, 45-38.

3-way, Santorum is LAST, Gingrich is +1 on Romney. Without Santorum, GIngrich is +3, which is still a razor thin margin. But even though Santorum is 3rd in the 3-way, if the "front-runner" Gingrich drops out, Santorum wins easily by 7%, a better margin than Gingrich gets in either 3-way or head-to-head.

Now, these are just polls. But they are two polls that show, logically, HOW it could be that the "front-runner" dropping out is better than the guy running behind him dropping out.

If you want to scratch your head, go ahead. It seems "counter-intuitive", until you remember that there isn't a block of "conservative" voters who can interchangeably be assigned to whatever conservatives are running. Gingrich has long-standing negatives and has a ceiling. I know you understand that, because you know that Romney has a ceiling right now as well, and the principle is identical.

It isn't just important that you have enthusiastic supporters. You need to avoid committed opponents. If 60% of the electorate dislikes Gingrich and won't vote for Gingrich, the only way Gingrich can win is a 3-way race, so that Santorum can take the votes of the voters that won't vote for Gingrich, but would rather not vote for Romney. And it turns out, that if Gingrich voters are much more in the "anybody but Romney" category than Santorum voters are, Gingrich dropping out throws enough votes to Santorum to make it easier to beat Romney.

This is a logical argument, which doesn't mean it reflects how things would actually work. It is how things COULD work. It is also possible that Santorum would get plastered with negative ads and end up with high negatives as well. I'm not telling Gingrich to drop out, I'm saying that there is a logical reason NOT to ask Santorum to quit.

IMHO, Romney is being set up like a Little League T-Ball for Obama to whack outta the park in Nov.

Not only does Romney’s “coronation” get rid of the Tea Party and “conservatives” for Rove and his RINO Country Club Status Quo bunch, it helps the dems keep the continuity of their “schtick”.

Obama and Romney are IDENTICAL politically, ESPECIALLY when it comes to the VERY important decision on permanently totally repealing Obamacare.

Obama can counter every political Romney arguement with “I know YOU are, but what am I” and clobber him over the head HARD with the 99% crap that he’s a 1%’er.

Geeee....that only leaves ONE “itty - bitty” difference.

Wanna guess what THAT is??????

Try “skin pigmentation”.

It worked for Obama BIG TIME in 2008. Romney is the ONLY candidate they can REALLY use it on because they are identical in almost every other way.

Romney WON'T attack Obama like he has Newt, because they will pin the "racist" tag on him so fast that his head will spin faster that his political flip-flops.

So Myth will "play nice" with Obama, he'll try to get everyone to sing "America The Beautiful" ( the fake crap he semms to be doing at ALL his Florida stops) and get KILLED in Nov, as is the GOP-e"plan" (see pic above), except Romney AND Rick don't seem to see it......YET.

Lil' Ricky WILL be "handed" the VP slot to "shut up" the "Santorum" and Tea Party "Conservative" people and with Romney's defeat, ensure Lil' Ricky won't be a problem to Rove and the GOP-E EVER AGAIN. With the Tea Party out of the way of BOTH parties for 2012 and 2016, Romney out of the way for 2012 AND 2016, the dems TOTALLY despised after 8 years of Obama, Rove and “the boys” can run Jeb for 2016 with NOBODY in their way.

OBTW, The pic below was taken last Friday afternoon Jan27th, 2012 , the day after "Bloody-Up Newt" Thursday by every RINO Country Clubber in this particular corner of the universe.

Jeb & George HW Bush & Obama Jan.27, 2012

Now, Obama has been in office for what, say 3 years?

How many photos of those three together have YOU seen??

Pretty much ALL the polls earier in the week had Newt leading in Florida, until the "suddenly" orchestrated RINO Newt attack which culminated Thursday before the debate, and THEN on Friday, I see THIS photo??

What in the heck could the three of them "constructively" have important enough in common to "get together" and talk about??

Maybe Barry just wanted ask them over to find out how "W" was doin', you know, the son and brother of the two guys in the pic who he STILL TO THIS MINUTE blames EVERYTHING bad that has happened to date in his administration on and two years before he replaced him in office???

Yeah, that's the ticket.

I have an idea, and I mentioned it in the post above the pic..

Newt and Sarah have been TRYING to warn the Tea Party and Conservatives about this BIG TIME!!

(Sorry, but my Reynolds Wrap cap dang near fell off when I saw it.)

THIS is why people are upset with Lil' Ricky. Either he is TOTALLY IGNORANT, or he's "in on the deal.

There is NO inbetween.

You argue the case for Gingrich dropping out quite well, but as you stated a couple of times, it’s so counter-intuitive that many people will either balk at the logic, or question the underlying assumptions.

I’m in the second category.

Santorum’s actual performance in the race, to date, causes me to doubt the assumptions your case is based upon. Where the rubber has met the road, more voters have put their faith and trust in Gingrich than in Santorum, which is, in my opinion, the best measure of future performance we have.

Just based upon that, I would still argue that it’s Santorum who should drop out, and not Gingrich - not to mention the fact that all things considered, Gingrich is better equipped to handle the enormous task facing the next president.

Now, that is my opinion, and of course, yours may vary. Thanks for the civil exchange.