One thing is clear - the GOP is changed forever now. It was bound to happen, a demographic thing for the most part along with some people with newly opened eyes.
Let me use Zogby’s latest poll to illustrate:
I am not a supporter of Paul, but he has 11% of the GOP solidly in his corner. He is for very limited government, to say the least.
Then we have Cain. Cain has about 28% of the GOP in his corner (more or less). Cain is for limited government.
Bachmann has 4%. Cain stole most of her supporters but anyway it’s another 4% for limited government.
Right there, you have 43% of the GOP voting base saying they want extremely or very limited federal government. The rest of the field - Romney, Perry, Newt et al - aren’t necessarily supported by “big government” people. Many Perry supporters are from the Christian right, many Newt supporters like his anti-obama tactics and reformist credentials. All GOPers should lean towards smaller government, but many GOP (and even many conservatives) can be statists on issues they care a lot about (gay marriage, pot smoking/WOD, international relations, abortion).
My point is, 43% of the GOP are now overtly throwing their weight behind a very pronounced small government reformist. Among the other 57%, more than 7% I venture are also for a much more limited fed gov. In this climate it is IMPOSSIBLE for a middle of the road, compromising, statist establishment candidate to win the primary. This is probably why Christy won’t jump in - there is nothing for him to gain, he’d could knock out both Perry and Romney and he’d still be in second place at best.
This is a very good thing. I don’t care if Sarah runs, in fact at this point it is probably better if she stays out. She can be a king maker in some ways, but anyway we don’t need this campaign shaken up, let’s let this field gel a bit and let the messages get out. I bet we will see this 43% number solidify. As some of the field drops out it may go over 50%.
My attitude and observation is: Obama cannot win he has no chance. Why not elect the most conservative candidate. Folks have problems with Sarah because they know she will do exactly what she says she will do. How refreshing it would be to have such a person competing for the office. I can wait a couple weeks for her to announce her decision and hope Christie provides her cover until then. He is doing a good job so far and I hope he keeps it up.