Although he has the right to brag, I’d be far more impressed if his record included 1980 or an idea if his figures would have predicted 1980.
Its going to be that type of sea change election IMO...the repudiation of a specific person and political ideology a la Carter and the embracing of the candidate that best exemplifies what we want America to be again.
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key. Wanna bet? I'll bet he IS challenged.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.
Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point. Wanna bet?
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” Sound the bullshit alarm!
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. A "win" only if said change was good and was popular, neither of which is true.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. What do you call the flash mobs?
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win. Squeaky clean my ass. Gunrunner anyone?
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. Libya? Egypt?
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.BS. I think there is at least one.
If you take MY numbers, he's at least one short of meeting this clown's criteria.
I was just thinking the other day that I hadn’t seen Lichtman in years. Alas, like Freddie Kruger he has returned.
If reading the threads on this site is any indicator, I am afraid he’s right. At the end of the day, the various GOP candidates’ camps will destroy each other.
Lichtman’s successful prediction history, interestingly enough, omits Reagan’s ‘80 win when the incumbent had problems similar to today’s incumbent.
How much you want to bet he had Hilary at this point last election. How far before the election did he pick every one?
Pray for America
There will be massive voter fraud on a scale here-to-fore unheard of in this country. A media totally on his side, "Booming" him twenty four hours a day. Large blocs of voters, blacks, Jews, Mexicans, Asians, Homosexuals and soon to be added Felons all totally committed to "Him". His incumbency. A billion dollar political war chest. Black thugs at critical polling places before whom hundreds of effete prospective white voters will flee in abject terror. A badly divided Republican party. A probable last minute Third Party candidate who will draw away millions of votes, like Ross Perot. (He will be paid off later!)
Lastly, any population who voted for this imbecile the first time is finished historically as a "People." Absent a miracle We have lost it beyond recovery!
I looked to see his track record whom he claims hasn’t missed since Reagan...there is nothing I could find to back up this claim.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman
BIG moonbat it seems. Not convinced yet?:
This ‘pundit’ is misreading his own keys!
Party Mandate? The Dems lost the House at the midterm. What is this guy smoking? Obama loses-
“Short term economy”? The economy is a mess! He calls this undecided? People are buying gold like it is.. well, real money. Banks are charging fees to large cash contributions... - He is shooting smack!
“There is no sustained social unrest during the term.” Excuse me? Has he been to Wisconsin? Has he seen the protests the left is preparing for Wall Street? He is toking lots of weed!
“Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.” ...Cough cough... Gunwalker? Libya? Egypt? British Petroleum? Sestak? JournoList? Czars? Berwick? Obamacare? Van Jones? The Beer Summit? Golf, Government Motors, Gibson Guitars anyone?
Millitary Duccess? Cuz he killed Bin Ladin? Say what? Failed in every way you can as the CIC and that’s all he’s got? What’s this guy drinking?
“Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.” Oh, I think a two term governor of Texas former jet fighter pilot might disagree.
...........
I think I am going to be ill
So I guess he is admitting that Bush II was elected not ‘selected’ against algore. Ha ha.
What a macaroon - he interprets half of his criteria backwards:
4. Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point. - Because he’s got almost all the blacks and almost all the loon-fringe lefties in his back pocket (ca. one third of the electorate) a third party candidacy almost certainly *helps* Obama.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.” - yeah, right, the economy will be just fine a year from now.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.] - Obama loses? The economy has been such a freaking disaster since Obama took over that even the liberals have noticed.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama. - Someone forgot to point out to this pinhead pundit that the majority of the country has hated the healthcare overhaul ever since it was muscled through Congress. I guess he was asleep during the 2010 elections.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here. - Somebody needs to introduce this moron to a flashmob. Or union thugs in Wisconsin. And just wait until next summer after inner city unemployment has had another year to simmer.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win. - I actually have to agree with the jackoff on this one, but only because the MSM continues to bury Fast and Furious, Holder’s “Justice” Department, the never-ending series of illegal alien Obama relatives, etc.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again. - As I listen to the radio while typing this: “August saw the largest number of military deaths in Afghanistan...” Iran has been a towering success, right? And just wait until the spit hits the fan with the “Arab Spring”...
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key. - How can anyone downplay Obama’s single-handed round-up of Osama - the bump on that one lasted , what, three weeks?
“Never-Wrong Pundit” - contradiction in terms.
95% of the media ripping republicans and the Tea Party apart everyday is a start. Then add in the fact that 52% of all Americans now depend on the government for part if not all of their subsistence and it is easy to understand why we are being sucked into the whirlpool of Marxism.
Don't forget the combination of poor educations, greed and gullibility.
from the article:
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.
Sorry LickMan, there is a lot of social unrest. What the HELL do you think the Tea Party is all about? Oh, we're not violent like the lunatic hippies in the 1960s. But to say there is no unrest is damn wrong.
LickMan is also wrong on another point:
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.
Huh? A record number of American deaths in Afghanistan isn't a failure? Osama getting killed is credited NOT to Hussein but to the Navy SEALS and the policies of Dubya. Not to mention his failure to recognize what was happening in Egypt, walking away from Israel, and allowing the proliferation of nuclear Iran and North Korea.
Look at the article for a good laugh. LickMan gives Hussein NINE WINS out of twelve factors...he is convinced Hussein is a lock for re-election.
LLS
No matter how you slice it, you can't outvote the welfare crowd+government employees+Union syncophants....no relief in sight via the ballot box, I'm afraid. The Courts have shown they are onboard with protecting the Ruling Class AND THE AGENDA.
We The People do not have "Standing".
Obama will be hard to beat in 2012 because he is not a politician. He is a cult leader.
