Note from this that of the 20 expulsions in history 19 of them were democrats. Interesting. Most though due to the Civil War.
That makes it highly unlikely the House would expel Weinie. If he insists on staying I think the most likely result would be a congressional reprimand. You can kill a woman in a drunk dricing accident and politicians in Washington won't expel you. (see Ted Kennedy)
Interestingly enough, no Republican has ever been expelled from Congress.