[sauropod]

mark

[cranked]

“....and there are no reliable U.S. defenses against it” = and I call BS. =.=

[DesertRhino]

“But China’s goal was never to trigger an extended, costly, bloody contest of superpowers.”

Sorta like how Japan thought. “If we sink the fleet at Pearl Harbor, the Americans will quickly back down.”

This is always a silly fantasy the enemies have. That if the Nimitz limps home a smoldering wreck from a sneak attack,, that Americans will quickly negotiate a settlement.While our nation appears limp-wristed, the world would be stunned at an American response to an outright military attack. ANd while Obama might not, every other president would probably launch ICBMs.

Thats the essential value of nuclear weapons. Realistically, you have no latitude anymore to launch conventional warfare against a nuclear power.

Not to mention, the instant they tried this, their loans to us are voided, and their biggest markety vanishes overnight. Did Lockheed write this fantasy to sell more stuff? The chineses “launch” button is actually an “instant destroy the chinese economy button”.

[A Texan]

I believe if China were to go after Taiwan, they would take the leash of the NORK’s at the same time. Basically creating a two front conflict in the hopes of possibly dividing our Asian-Pacific forces. We would then sacrifice Taiwan and try to save what is left of South Korea.

[sionnsar]

the U.S. president orders the Nimitz and its escorts to the Taiwan Strait

Wrong. Obama sends an apology to Beijing.

[M Kehoe]

Good afternoon.

It's fun to war game. Even if you're a Grunt.

Methinks the Japanese have both fuel and design for a nuke. An outlier in the above game maybe the Japanese put one together in 6 weeks, amend the Constitution, and test.

My bet is the Chicoms and Norks (not in the above scenario either), would sh#t their collective pants.

5.56mm

[Jeff Head]

Here's about a thousand pages of what it could look like...and it doesn;t start out well at all.

THE DRAGON'S FURY
World War against the United States and the West

That's fictional. Here's a factual analysis over several years of:

[The Comedian]

With-Obama-we-get-egg-rolled ping.

(Thanks SilentGypsy)

"Nuclear Terror" ping.

Ping list covering atomic/nuclear/thermonuclear terrifying events and discussions.

FReepmail me if vou want on or off The Comedian's "Nuclear Terror" ping list...

Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

[rmlew]

Regarding the carrier, the author forgot about the E2 Hawkeye in a AEW role. He forgets that our Arleigh Burke Destroyers are also equiped with the Aegis system. He forgets that Taiwan has its own Sky Bow SAMS. This is a failure to do basic research.

Also, Japan would likely intervene, especially if China attacks Okinawa.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

What was missing from that analysis was our response to the attacks on Kadena and Nimitz. So we do nothing? Then sure, they would win. What would be the point of sending the Nimitz in the first place. More likely, when they attack Kadena, the Nimitz, and then Guam, then their bases become fair game and get even worse treatment. That their analysis didn’t factor this in weakens it tremendously.

[Mariner]

this is BS.

the entire scenario is predicated on the idea that the Chinese mainland is a sanctuary and that China's DF21 ASBM is R E A L.

Neither is true.

[tcrlaf]

Several problems with this.

FIRST, they assume the United States actually responds to what the Chinese are doing.

With Dear Reader in the White House, the chances are very good that he will order US forces to STAND DOWN, and let the Chinese resolve the “Internal matter” themselves.

[Jeff Head]

The mobile DF-21D can target aircraft carriers, and there are no reliable U.S. defenses against it.

The entire growing sense that somehow China has gotten one over on us with this system is baed on this statement and smoke and mirrors.

The Chinese have simply announced this system, but not one operational test has been observed or announced. The Chinese have a huge technological obstacles to overcome to develop and field such a system.

They do not have the satellite system in place to find the carrier, track it, or communicate with long distance assetss that might do so.

They would be launching from great distance and the carrier will have moved miles by the time the missile arrives on target so it will need a acquisition and targeting capability of its own that the chinese have not demonstrated.

Then, and finally, it will be going against the teeth of the US AEGIS System, the very greatest strength of a carrier battle group's defenses. While the Chinese have only talked about their capability and done research on land, the US Navy has demonstrated the exact capability of shooting down just these types of missiles at sea once they get close to and target our vessels.

So, this great threat is more manufactured than real at this point. Repeat something often enough with enough offiandom and people start to believe it, despite the lack of any real evidence.

With such proganda they can change spending and our thinking when it probably does not need to change at all.

The PLAN is a growing threat, make no mistake. And they are developing and fielding a lot of new vessels and systems. but there is no evidence that they have mastered what they need to produce this system..which would be a significant threat, but due to AEGIS, not a game ender.