Posted on 12/30/2010 6:38:56 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
mark
‘....chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, added that he has “moved from being curious to being genuinely concerned” about the buildup.’
If he was only “curious” before, he’s a g-d idiot, and he’s definitely a g-d idiot for saying it.
“There is zero chance that the US will fight to save Taiwan, and this has been true for many years.”
Jim, you’re one of the few folks around here who sees things as they are — not through prisms of liberalism OR of conservatism, but simply [again] “as they are”.
Although they remain “apart” politically, in the years since Mao’s death the nations of China and Taiwan have grown much more “alike”. Both are now capitalistic-minded nations, albeit with different governmental control structures.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see China make an offer directly to the people of Taiwan to reunite with the mainland under the same principles and options that were offered to those of Hong Kong. If such an offer were made, I would expect the principal opponents to it on the Taiwan side would be the elites and governing classes, who would of course lose their power and control. But I would wager that the majority of Taiwanese would assent to such a scenario.
I also see some kind of “grand exchange” to be offered by China in the future.
China wants Taiwan, to reunify the Chinese people. But such deals can’t be sealed without quid pro quo. What can China “offer” to “free Asia” in return?
Answer: North Korea, the outlaw state that has been under China’s wing for 60 years.
But the ideologies that once were similar to both countries have changed to the point where North Korea must be a continuing headache for the Chinese.
As China has moved to be more similar to Taiwan (than in the past), North Korea has moved 180 degrees to the opposite of its southern sister. NK has become a danger not only to South Korea but to the entire civilized world through its export of weapons, including nuclear proliferation technology. Unchecked, at some point it must be brought to heel, by whatever means possible.
But NK cannot exist without Chinese support, and without it must quickly collapse and capitulate.
China could intentionally decapitate the North Korean government and military, forcing it into “peace talks” with the South Koreans that will be nothing more than cover for a veiled transition of control to the South.
..... IN EXCHANGE for “reunification talks” with the Republic of Taiwan, whose conclusions will be foregone.
Hence, the “Grand Exchange” of Asia.
“....and there are no reliable U.S. defenses against it” = and I call BS. =.=
You got that right. There won’t be any war between us and China over Taiwan for the next two years anyway.
Obama would give Taiwan to China in a minute, and I think China knows it.
“But China’s goal was never to trigger an extended, costly, bloody contest of superpowers.”
Sorta like how Japan thought. “If we sink the fleet at Pearl Harbor, the Americans will quickly back down.”
This is always a silly fantasy the enemies have. That if the Nimitz limps home a smoldering wreck from a sneak attack,, that Americans will quickly negotiate a settlement.While our nation appears limp-wristed, the world would be stunned at an American response to an outright military attack. ANd while Obama might not, every other president would probably launch ICBMs.
Thats the essential value of nuclear weapons. Realistically, you have no latitude anymore to launch conventional warfare against a nuclear power.
Not to mention, the instant they tried this, their loans to us are voided, and their biggest markety vanishes overnight. Did Lockheed write this fantasy to sell more stuff? The chineses “launch” button is actually an “instant destroy the chinese economy button”.
Which brings up the point, will China see the need to act before Obummer is removed from office?
At the time we could credibly claim we would defend them if the time came. Does anybody believe Obama has that kind of credibility now? None of these events would have happened under Bush because his tough talkin’ cowboy image reeked “I’ll kick your ass if you cross me.” What does our bicycle helmet wearing metro sexual reek of? I would have taken his lunch money and held it until lunch time just to stop the bullies from getting it.
No American President would EVER nuke land targets in response to an attack on warships.
That's been the fallacy of the carrier battle group for years and years.
Any conflict in which CBGs could play a role would result in the CBGs being sunk in fifteen minutes with nuclear weapons.
And the idea that a Soviet (or Chicom) attack on a seaborne military target would lead to us trading Los Angeles for Beijing is just absurd.
A land attack that killed civilians - sure. A clean kill in the middle of the ocen - not a chance.
If Bush didn't attack Tora Bora with ICBMs, you can dismiss it as a possibility under your scenario. THIS isn't an Obama problem - our weakness has been apparent for years.
“As the greatest US general said in 1951”
You surely cannot mean MacArthur? He was a singularly incompetent general,,, probably a strong candidate for all time worst. His strongest trait was shameless self promotion and having his mommy promote him to politicians. He is not in the class of Grant, Patton, Pershing, Custer, Sherman, Ike, Kreuger, Bradley, Schwartzkopf, etc. If you want a great example,, Ridgeway who relieved him was so superior it is nearly embarrassing.
His defense of the PI was utterly amateurish, his slugfests in the pacific murdered tons of good men and wasted resources. They contributed very little to the ultimate outcome of the War. They had to give dugout doug a task where he couldn’t do much damage, but appear to be using him.
His vaunted landing at Inchon was something that would have been done by anyone who happened to have access to a Marine division and map. As the forces wiped out north Korea, his poor analysis and understanding of the situation are what triggered China to enter the war. His poor generalship and silly moves convinced China we intended not to stop at the border, and were going to cross into Manchuria.
Realistically, Without MacArthur, the Korean war would have been a 5 month war with no Chinese intervention,,,and it would have ended with a “Korea”.
And it’s sickening that he got a MOH for spending a few months underground in Corregidor and then leaving his men to their fate.
Those men would have never BECOME trapped in the Bataan peninsula in the hands of a competent general. He Faced forces smaller, weaker, and less logistically supported than his. So he “Generalled” them into about the only place the Japanese could have corned them into a siege. The Japanes General was amazed, and was utterly unprepared for the surrender of an entire army. They thought they were in for a tough battle. He stabbed those men in the back.
Wrong. Obama sends an apology to Beijing.
Your analysis was spot on, Obamas weakness in response to the CHinese invasion and the Norks sinking a warship has made the entire region FAR more dangerous.
The truth is that a war over Taiwan will not happen in a normal era. But the likelihood of it in the next two years is sky high, as the CHicoms correctly judge that Obama would slink away. His weakness encourages aggression.
“Send every conscript home with his rifle, as the Swiss do.”
Best idea ever. I read an article once that explained it better than i can. But such a plan is horrifyingly effective for defense. A universally armed populace who are good with rifles. The only downside is that it is not too good for projecting power like a conventional military.
But for all the talk of the naysayers, a rifle armed populace is the ultimate in invasion prevention.
IOW, RF magnetic field blast (a nuclear device detonated high enough above earth to create a massive magnetic field distortion) which would disable China’s satellites and their electronics on the ground. And financial and economic sabotage. Provided, as you have indirectly implied, we had a leadership chain in place capable of issuing the order.
Obama would call for restraint on both sides.
It's fun to war game. Even if you're a Grunt.
Methinks the Japanese have both fuel and design for a nuke. An outlier in the above game maybe the Japanese put one together in 6 weeks, amend the Constitution, and test.
My bet is the Chicoms and Norks (not in the above scenario either), would sh#t their collective pants.
5.56mm
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