[paulycy]

Rove is right.

If the margin of victory is only a few points then Rove, Krauthammer and the Pubbie Elite are all wrong and the loss is on their shoulders for their clear lack of support and obvious undermining of her campaign right after her primary win.

If the margin of victory is greater than even Castle could have achieved, as Sarah just said on Fox, then the same applies.

ONLY if the margin of victory is overwhelming but Castle could have won are you correct. The odds are against. you.

You are not understanding the strategy here... it is a multi-election game with a decentralized power structure. Study it and win.

[JHBowden]

If the margin of victory is only a few points then Rove, Krauthammer and the Pubbie Elite are all wrong and the loss is on their shoulders for their clear lack of support and obvious undermining of her campaign right after her primary win.

Fair enough. I'll check back on this thread when the numbers come in, and we'll see who is right.

[Strategerist]

ONLY if the margin of victory is overwhelming but Castle could have won are you correct. The odds are against. you.

So nobody has bothered to look at DE's results page?

92% of precincts reporting - O'Donnell was annihilated 57% to 39%; that's 18%, actually WORSE than the RCP poll average.

It strains credulity to blame 18% on Rove; 18% of voters don't base their vote on what Rove tells them to do.

Leaving aside tactical/strategic issues, and just looking at objectively analyzing races, I do hope people at least learn something about the accuracy of polls for general elections (especially poll averages, and general rather than primary elections) - they're really quite accurate the overwhelming majority of the time.