Posted on 10/18/2010 12:18:38 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush
Election Day is just two weeks away, and Republican candidates hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 17, 2010.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of respondents say they would vote for their districts Republican congressional candidate, while 39% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.
Even more worrisome for Democrats, however, is the finding that among the voters who are most closely following the midterm elections Republicans hold a 55% to 36% lead.
While the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead on the Generic Ballot for over a year, and their lead has run as high as 12 points and as low as three points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold a 17-point lead.
Our work is cut our for us - no?
“We will know two weeks from Wednesday.”
40% will be baked in before Tue. even comes around. This totally favors the GOP this year. In a closer election, it would favor whoever got more of the advanced vote, and actual votes in. This year, with these gaps the GOP is way up NOW, and that means the RATs are playing massive catchup RIGHT NOW. This should be majorly depressing to all their professional politicos and volunteers who understand this. They are the first line in the RATs GOTV. I’m starting to think though, that they’re at such a major disadvantage, it’s going to be like trying to bring enthusiasm to the One Nation rally - they will try to bus it in, and scream it in...but it’s just not going to happen.
I can see November, and victory from my backyard.
Our challenge - those of us that are majorly plugged in - is to GOTV in these last two weeks to maximize impacts up and down ticket in all close races!!
“No, it’s a 19 point spread among those most closely following the elections. It’s a nine point spread among those most likely to vote.”
Ras polls LV - likely voters. My take is that those closely following the election are ‘most’ likely to vote. Turnout among that group will be very high and break greatly (+ 19) to the GOP. Then among the LV group it will not be as great a turnout (it’s a likely voter model) - but those who vote will still break quite significantly toward the GOP (+9).
Very good news. I don’t think anything can save the DemonRats.
“The way I figure it, if we don’t return to fiscal sanity, my savings will be worthless in a few years anyways.”
Good point. And look what obummer and the Fed are busy doing right now through POMO and whatever other elements of QE2 they throw up. They are banking (pun intended) on devaluing our dollars to supposedly lessen the debt burden and try to ‘stimulate’ the economy through ‘controlled’ inflation.
There are a lot of "likely voters" who habitually vote but do not closely follow the election. A lot of those, but not all, would be "independents" and women.
Oh, but haven't you heard?? Obama is getting hoarse firing up his base here in Ohio. Never mind that he has a 33% approval rating, so his base is teeny weeny.
He's magic, don't you remember?? He can fix anything.................hehe...........
These sound like PSA from the DNC. NPR is totally in the tank for Obama, they are worse than CNN and MSNBC combined. It almost makes you barf.
As far as I know, NPR is both tax exempt, AND federally funded.
They ought to be taken off the air under a Republican Administration, or at least be forced to give exact, equal time, if they are going to be using our tax dollars for this blatant partisan propaganda. They are SCARED.
I had a run in with the OSU/NPR head a few years back, and the nincompoop actually argued with me that NPR was NON-partisan, and that they presented both sides equally. After I stopped laughing, I pointed out the exact reasons why he was wrong.
I wish I had had the facts you just stated..........but I stopped listening the that crackpot 'news' years ago.
Now I just listen to the pretty music. :)
No it is not. 1 point does not mean anything when there is a 2 point margin of error. Sorry my friend, but the good news is that we are still ahead and has shrunk.
BS! I use statistics often and a 1% shift within a 95% confidence level can and does detect movement depending upon the size of the sample. There has been no shrinkage but an increase from +3% to +9% in the last two weeks which is a movement of +6% which falls outside the error interval, therefore you can say with a confidence level of 95% that undecideds are shifting towards Republicans.
Listening to Obama pontificate on the stump, he doesn't even realize how much he is insulting the American people with his words. He and his ilk just don't get it! Their syncophants will chant "Yes, We Can!" all they want, but rest of America isn't buying it anymore.
“My son turned 18 last month and he registered to vote yesterday. One more conservative voter here in Amherst, NH.”
Yes, in some places there is late registration I see - and in your case it breaks the right way! Here in WA, people have gotten their ballots - and you can’t ‘register’ or motor/voter reg at the polls as in some states.
We have all our troubles with counting. That’s been our issue.
All the best there!!
SB
OHIO CAMPAIGN STOP "Barack, you think these cheering suckers will vote Democrat, again, after all your screwups."
" My screwups? You the one who went globe-trotting to Spain. That dumba** trip killed my agenda for good."
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