Posted on 07/02/2010 5:35:12 AM PDT by C19fan
Obama’s plan apparently is to lower the jobless rate to 0 by having all the jobless give up looking for jobs.
Talk about a weird way to keep stats.
NOT getting a job gets you OFF of the “wants a job roll.”
It’s in times like this that the stupidity of that record keeping method is really relevant.
I’m assuming that the real rate has gone up.
Well, its not 12%, 13%... 15%
I agree.
The dems win the extended unemployment benefits argument.
They won’t pay for it and blame the republicans for not extending the benefits.
They win by not having to count those unemployed in their statistics. Hence we have 9.5%
There are for-fee databases of aggregate data, but you can find the state & county level data at almost all state treasury office websites.
Sales tax receipts were one of the indicators for me that showed that things were starting to look up earlier this year. In April/May, sales tax receipts were improving in something like 15+ states. They’re still down from 2007, mind you, and the states are in fiscal trouble, but the revenues were looking like they were stabilizing.
While sales tax receipts are a good, solid indication of how the retail economy is doing, it is a lagging indicator because you won’t get the data until the month (or sometimes, two months) following the month being reported. Unlike many other economic indicators, it is not a statistical wild-assed guess, it is an actual count of the money coming in. You sometimes can “back into” an indication of sales tax numbers being up or down from things like Walmart sales, auto sales, etc - which are reported in a more timely manner than the sales tax numbers in many states.
On that chart, the3 “SGS Alternate” depicts the number of unemployed using the official definition before 1994 (when it was revised). The authors think it’s more accurate to compare different eras using similar models than allowing the model to be amended to try to show improvement.
Thanks for the link.
And here is an example of Republicans and their typical political ridiculousness. I made an incredible immigration speech yesterday, and instead of coming to the table and offering ideas, the Republicans attack the “Summer of Recovery”. The time for political games is over America. It is time to forget about the stimulus because it would be much worse without it, and it is time turn our focus to handing over our sovereignty to illegals. Now let’s get to work.
And here is an example of Republicans and their typical political ridiculousness. I made an incredible immigration speech yesterday, and instead of coming to the table and offering ideas, the Republicans attack the “Summer of Recovery”. The time for political games is over America. It is time to forget about the stimulus because it would be much worse without it, and it is time turn our focus to handing over our sovereignty to illegals. Now let’s get to work.
LOL. Unemployment is DOWN to 9.5%? Hussein will tout this as great progress.
Welcome to Hussein’s America, America. Enjoy a big bite of his Crap Sandwich.
bttt.
sounds like “Road To Serfdom” a little bit.
Non-farm jobs declined by 125,000, and private employment went up by 83,000. Which indicates that only public sector jobs increased
“A lot of folks dropped off the rolls after Wednesday when the last round of extended unemployment payments dried up.’
So if you’re not on the roll but unemployeed it doesn’t count. We could have 20% unemployeed but 11% aren’t on the rolls.
Reminds of the old Holiday weekend road fatality counts. I used to tell my friends if you going to have an accident do it on a holiday or it won’t count.
Your answer is more technically correct than mine!
The Bureau of Labor Statistic's U6 metric, which "includes total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers" and therefore is much closer to actual unemployment, is 16.7% at the end of the first quarter of 2010:
http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt10q1.htm
It apparently has not been updated yet to include the second quarter of 2010. When that number comes out, it will give us a much better picture of what's really been going on.
Quite frankly, conservative talk radio and FNC should always quote U6, since it is much more realistic. And it would be especially delicious too when the lame stream media started to howl about that, as it would force them to explain why they are howling, giving the conservative outlets a wonderful means to start a controversy that focuses on the dismal unemployment situation.
If they are truly random sampling and performing monthly polls, then it is a little suspicious that I have never received a call in my 23 some odd years of work life asking if I am employed or not for BLS information purposes.
From the LA Times:
Although the jobless rate in June fell from 9.7% in May, that reflected a big drop of 652,000 people in the labor force over the month. The labor force is made up of workers and those actively looking for jobs. With the economic recovery weakening and many employers reluctant to hire, many more unemployed people may have quit looking for work, which would push down the jobless rate.
In fact, the percentage of the overall working-age population that is in the labor force fell last month to 64.7% — near a 25-year low.
Thanks
ObamaStats (TM)
My hope is in the latter...and that’s why I am the most optimistic person I know. It’s still hard to observe the strong delusion, even though I know its purpose.
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