They Still Don’t Have the Votes

NRO ^ | 3/20/2010 | Jeffrey Anderson

[Uncledave]

They Still Don’t Have the Votes [Jeffrey H. Anderson]

The most likely explanation for the breakdown of talks between Rep. Bart Stupak and Speaker Nancy Pelosi is not that Pelosi decided she didn’t need Stupak and his crew in order to have enough votes to pass Obamacare. Rather, it is that Stupak — who is increasingly emerging as this drama’s Jefferson Smith (Jimmy Stewart’s heroic character in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington) — held firm in insisting on language that would truly prevent taxpayer-funded abortions, and in insisting that such language be passed by the Senate before the bill could become law.

In turn, Pelosi either decided that by accepting the language, she would lose more votes in the House than she would gain, or else knew that Democratic senators, with their strong preference for taxpayer-funded abortion, would never go along with this concession to the views of the vast majority of Americans.

In any event, by all accounts, Pelosi is now trying to pass the bill without the pro-life Democratic vote — or at least without Stupak. As of now, it doesn’t appear that she has the votes. I currently count 208 leaning in favor of Obamacare and 214 leaning against, with 9 undecided. Here they are — with the margin by which the presidential vote was won (by one party or the other) in their districts over the last three elections:

• Marion Berry (D., Ark.) (GOP +8) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Henry Cuellar (D., Tex.) (Dem +1) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Bill Foster (D., Ill.) (GOP +4)

• Jim Matheson (D., Utah) (GOP +30) — with nearly two-thirds of his constituents having supported GOP presidential candidates over the last three elections, a “yes” vote on Stupak, and an earlier “no” vote on Obamacare, a “yes” vote would mean that, for the rest of his days, he would be remembered as the guy who sold his vote for the price of Obama’s having just nominated his brother to a federal judgeship

• Michael Michaud (D., Me.) (Dem +7) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Solomon Ortiz (D., Tex.) (GOP +1) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Earl Pomeroy (D., N.D.) (GOP +21) — pro-Stupak Amendment — yes, that’s GOP +21

• Nick Rahall (D., W.V.) (GOP +6) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Zach Space (D., Ohio) (GOP +12) — pro-Stupak Amendment

Also, here is a partial list of some particularly key members who are leaning “no”:

• Christopher Carney (D., Pa.) (GOP +15) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Dan Lipinski (D., Ill.) (Dem +22) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Kathleen Dahlkemper (D., Pa.) (GOP +3) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Glenn Nye (D., Va.) (GOP +9) — “no” last time

[Tribune7]

TheHill.Com just had an update at 5:19 p.m. and does not indicate that.

They have been saying that Stupak's coalition was breaking apart all week.

I'm going to assume it's not until I see more than an unsourced post

[RightWingNilla]

I hope you are right my friend. I dont know what to believe anymore.

[midnightcat]

*ugh* ambition like Napoleon or the Antichrist! Still you can’t tell me that some of these politicians aren’t angry at him and what he’s asking them to do. I want to see some of their anger at him. It doesn’t make sense that some of them wouldn’t resent him for what he’s putting them through.

[Tribune7]

We will find out tomorrow.

[glock rocks]

That's why I think this deal fails by a No vote of over 230. There are probably 15 - 20 Dems who will wait until they see the "No" vote reach 216, then they vote against it for their political survival.

It looks like Jim Matheson is in that particular leaky canoe. His problem is that the fact that he has held out this long will doom his chances or reelection. On this, he likely can be counted as a yes vote to pay his brothers piper, unless the 216 hits before his vote is called for. He is a truly a disappointment. His father was a good man.

[rwfromkansas]

Fox said they have 218. I hope that’s wrong.

However, with dropping deem and pass, a win for them is MUCH more likely.

[pnut22]

Just a thought. If you were planning to vote no, would you say it today?

[glock rocks]

s/b chances of reelection

[jonathonandjennifer]

I feel bad that I’m not in Washington today so I thought I can at least send some money to Landmark Legal, so I did.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

We have been scammed! This recent episode of Congress passing Healthcare Reform has been a vast manipulation of events by the Democratic Party with the active aid of the Media. This pretense by Democrats of difficulty passing a bill, when they have overwhelming numbers in the United States House of Representatives, is a way to pretend President Barack Obama has achieved some kind of great victory. Obama’s poll numbers have been dropping and there have been no achievements in his first year as President, So the Democrats dreamt up a plan to pretend how hard it is to be President and how difficult it is too pass a bill in Congress. The Democratic Party along with their allies in the media knew the outcome; but by building up the suspense, having Obama cancel his planned trips, they hope to enhance the political value of passing the Healthcare Bill.

In order to have a win they intentionally divided the country into two opposing groups and now with a bare majority in the U.S. Senate they intend to make major changes to our Country and in the process impose their will on anyone who disagrees with them. There is a reason why the necessity of super majorities was enshrined in Senate rules. Routine business should be passed with simple majorities but whenever government tries to impose major changes on an opposing group the bill should have overwhelming support in congress and throughout the Country.

Even such necessary major changes as the elimination of slavery or civil rights legislation were accomplished because an overwhelming majority came together to pass Constitutional Amendments or to pass legislation. When a bare Congressional majority attempts to impose major changes, even in the face of opposition by a majority of the citizens; it breeds cynicism, distrust and contempt for our government and the officials who pretend to represent us. Even if you believe that Obama Care will dramatically improve healthcare, the way it was accomplished caused significant harm to the country as a whole. But then for Democrats the chance to claim a win trumps any real concern for the good of the country.

[Solidstatechemist]

Bad Idea:

1. You’re living in a dream world if you think the SEIU/ACORN/Moveon crowd won’t smell out closet conservatives at the primary level and make them unelectable.
2. Once elected, they will be mardinalized by the ever-more liberal remaining Democrats.
3. Trying to infiltrate the Democratic party dilutes the efforts to reclaim the Republican Party. If there is any direction to go outside the Republican Party, it probably ought to be in the direction of the TEA Party/New TRULY CONSERVATIVE Third Party
4. Pelosi’s seat aside, as a general rule, when Republicans run as centrists, they lose; when Dems run as moderates/right of general Dem politics, they win. When Republicans run to the right, they have tended to win. If you have conservatives get them into the business of reclaiming the Republican Party.
$.02

[True Republican Patriot]

Its better for the show!! If they were reporting it DEAD! they wouldn’t have their bases in a complete frenzy! We would back off if we knew it was Dead and the RATS would start abandoning their SH*t(correction: Ship) if they knew they were loosing. The loosing team has to beleive they can make it over the line up until its over. Even if they get this over by one freaking vote or two, thats a disterous statement and as the Stench of this Mess sees sunlight, people are going to freak out. They plan on hiring 16,000 new IRS Agents to come after John Q. Public for their freakin Healthcare, bad enough it was just for our taxes!
The bureacracies will be humongous and not a cent of those costs are shown in the CBO numbers. As Boehner said today: This is Armeggeddon for America, it will destroy her!

[midnightcat]

I would. I have bad PMS today and don’t care what anyone thinks.

[Zman]

Baird will cave; he’s retiring and holds constituents in contempt.

[choirboy]

I’m in her district. If a Republican gets 10% of the vote, it’s a banner year.

[LS]

So is Bishop a yes. Cantor says “The situation is fluid and we’re still fighting.”

[what's up]

Don't forget...FOX is counting on all undecideds voting the same way this time even though they have NOT committed. That's not an accurate count.

This thing is quite winnable. But I think we won't know till it goes down to the wire.

[proudCArepublican]

From your post to God’s ears we can only pray and hope if it passes it will be a sad day for America I believe in Health Care Reform but first clean up fraud in medical and medicare, get rid of the lawyers who sue for everything under the sun, take a look at CA and see the future of the USA we are broke we can’t afford to pay our bills a once thriving state is upside down we have more tax paying people leaving than coming and they are taking money out of our paycheck for those of us who work actual it is a loan they say NO IT IS A TAX
So we can only pray

[DanielRedfoot]

Act inside the box

Thats brilliant!

[Son House]

Looks like Obama can’t admit this bill is bad policy, when it is obvious. Keep the con-job up big talker!