Who to believe. This is front and center on the LA Times website:
Scientists See This Flu Strain As Relatively Mild
http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story
Dr. Christopher Olsen a molecular virologist who studies swine flu says to keep this outbreak in perspective. Remember the annual flu kills 10s of thousands.
Richard Webbey, a leading influenza virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital says “This virus doesn’t have anywhere near the capacity to kill like the 1918 virus”.
Peter Palese, a microbiologist and influenza expert at Mt. Sinai Medical Center in NY says, “There are certain characterists, molecular signatures, that this virus lacks”. In short it lacks an amino acid that would make the virus deadly.
I’m inclined to believe these quoted sources rather than a friend of a friend who knows someone at the CDC. No offense to anyone here.
Let’s be prepared but get facts before getting carried away.
It is really difficult. I would rather believe quoted sources myself since they are on the record. But, honestly, who knows? We could have some false info being spread here.....always be suspicious of my friend of a friend stuff.
However, what if it’s true?
1. This is the first and only article so far that says this may be not as bad as the normal flu. (Let's not forget the normal flu kills 36,000 a year, so even if this flu is half as bad, it will add another 18,000 deaths.) But maybe they are just now starting to get a handle on the situation, so maybe we will see more of this kind of article.
2. Although the people quoted have lofty-sounding titles, I'm still skeptical of their direct knowledge of this particular flu. The quoted Dr. Olsen works at a Vet Medicine school... he studies swine flu - in SWINE. What does he know about this four-pronged version that is circulating among humans? Does he know enough about this version to draw the conclusion he is drawing? Or is he, like many FReepers, simply blowing it off because there are “only 7 confirmed deaths.” ? I don't know, and the article doesn't answer my question. And I have the same question about the St. Jude doctor... what does he know about THIS virus?
3. If these two quoted doctors DO know as much as they imply that they know about this virus, how did they come to have this knowledge — are they actively involved in the case, or are they getting their info from news articles just like we are? If they are studying THIS virus, why doesn't the article say they are “with CDC and actively participating in the tracking and study of this virus” ? If they had direct knowledge, wouldn't the article say so? Or is the author of the article simply quoting a couple of people who happen to have lofty credentials, and who, like many FReepers, are not buying the whole hype of a possible Pandemic?
So yes, I'm with you -— who to believe? I'm still of the opinion that it's too early to tell what this thing will do. But it's better to be prepared and safe, than to be cavalier and sorry.