Yes - Toomey can win, for the following reasons:
*See latest Quinnipiac poll - 41T-27S. A closed primary, coupled with a "sore loser" law, leaves Specter in serious trouble - especially in a non-presidential election year when voting % will be down. The hard core will be voting, not the mushy middle.
*In the general, Pat was a three-time congressman from a 'Rat majority district in the Lehigh Valley that voted 'Rat in each Prez election. He won each time by a larger margin than before. The reason is his ability to communicate conservative principles in a way to make them appealing to non-conservative and non-ideological voters.
*The 'Rats could still throw a monkey wrench into this if Fast Eddie jumps into the race at the last minute (he is term-limited as governor). Otherwise, all 'Rats showing interest in running have zero name recognition. Toomey sweeps the T and wins Pittsburgh, while his Eastern PA connections allow him to limit the damage in Philly.
Regards -
OO
FWIW, our state house district has been occupied by moderate democrats ever since it was created in 1969. In 2008, we elected Tim Krieger, a Club for Growth backed Republican. When we met Tim at his office opening, he told me that he felt the turning point in his narrow win was when his opponent tried to smear Club for Growth as an extremist organization. We're in the opposite corner of the state and got a good look at Pat Toomey in 2004. We liked what we saw.