“Hard to say. 2006 was a bad year for Republicans nationwide, but Penn is so far gone it’s tough to say.”
So, yes, a conservative Republican can win an open-seat Senate race in PA, especially in 2010 (when the governorship is also open and there is no presidential election). Economic and social conservative Pat Toomey can unite all wings of the GOP and attract enough socially conservative Democrats (perhaps the largest voting block in PA) to win the race.
You may be right, but not necessarily. The Republican nominee needs to be at least somewhat populist on economic issues. Pat Toomey’s support for Free Trade is a negative, and he’s not great on illegal aliens, either.
I’m of the opinion that Joe Hoeffel was an uninspiring candidate and that Toomey would have bested him had he won the primary last time.
He can certainly win this time. Rendell would likley beat him or Specter but it doesn’t look like he’ll run. PA is certainly not “too far gone” in the least.
2010 is not 2006 and Toomey won’t be running against Casey. Being pro-life will win a rat many votes in PA (though Santorum beat a weak pro-life rat (Congressman Klink) in 2000 ))) like Casey JR. (allegedly) in 2006. The terrible year 2006 and Casey popularity is what sunk Santorum.