I think McCain will get a strong primary challenge. It is worth remembering that McCain did not even get 50% of the presidential primary vote in AZ, the only “top tier” candidate of either party who failed to do so. And McCain won AZ in the election with just 53.4% of the vote to 44.9% for Obama. Bush won with 54.9% in 2004. McCain is vulnerable.
Hope so. I know precisely zero about AZ politics.
The person who could defeat him, likely with one hand tied behind his back, would be Shaddegg. I don’t think Shaddegg will take the chance of losing the primary and his congressional seat both, which leave JD. JD has mixed approval in AZ, which I fear McCain would mine deeply. I like JD and would vote for him... but McCain would bloody him over Abramhoff as well as the lobby money his wife received when he was in congress.