Posted on 12/10/2008 5:55:42 PM PST by MitchellC
The first poll of the 2010 Senate race came out today.
With the dust barely settled on the last race, Democratic firm Public Policy Polling released numbers comparing U.S. Sen. Richard Burr with possible Democratic opponent Attorney General Roy Cooper.
The poll shows a competitive race, with Cooper leading Burr by five points, 39 to 34 percent. It also shows Burr with a 32 percent approval rating, compared to Cooper's 44 percent approval.
"If Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to run for the Senate in 2010, you can put Richard Burr's name right to the top of the list of endangered incumbents nationally," writes pollster Tom Jensen.
He notes that Burr also had much lower approval ratings among Democrats than Cooper did among Republicans.
The poll of 630 North Carolina voters was taken Dec. 8-9. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Barr cost McCain Indiana, too.
You know that is what I heard, but when I went to the individual states to look it up, it looked like McCain still would have lost Indiana, it was close though, 19,243 for Barr and a loss of 25,836 for McCain... at least that is my notes.. People like Barr tick me off, he didn’t have the guts to run in the primary and went in just to act as a spoiler.
That’s how Democrats win GOP states, with 3rd parties but the vote should never have been that close in the first place.
I agree with you.. McCain was a horrible candidate, no way around that fact.
Hmm, I’m looking at Dave Leip’s site and this is how he has it:
Barack H. Obama (D) 1,374,039 49.91%
John S. McCain (R) 1,345,648 48.88%
Bob Barr (L) 29,257 1.06%
Barr appeared, by roughly a thousand votes, to have cost McCain. It’s shocking that McCain even lost at all even with Barr, since the state hadn’t voted Democrat for President since 1964.
Difference is in 2002, Smith couldn’t beat Shaheen, and Sununu could. In 2008, Sununu couldn’t beat Shaheen, but neither would have any other Republican in the entire state, in fact, Sununu was the best chance at winning that seat.
Obama 1,367,503
McCain 1,341,667
I had to look somewhere else for the Barr numbers, so got them off the Libertarian site... I believe your numbers are probably more reliable.
I still can’t believe we lost Dole. She was a staple. This country is shifting and we aren’t on the ball.
Dole lost for Dole. She ran a horrid campaign. She thought she was a shoo in and when she finally realized she was in a real race, she made one blunder after another. The commercial in which she questioned Kay Hagan’s Christianity
was the final straw. Whe I saw that I turned to my husband and said, “she’s lost the race for certain now, just wait til Hagan gets her church members out there speaking for her”. Sure enough, a commercial was made, a law suit for defamation was filed and Dole lost.
The other problem she had was that she was hardly ever in the state. She is a DC maven and I doubt we will seldom see her here in NC again.
Ditto what you said on how to organize and motivate, but dont underestimate how hard the dems will work - yes blacks will come out less than this year but i wil l bet it will be in greater numbers than other midterms. also cooper’s good reputation will be hard to overcome.
2010 is really a long time away. After all, who would have predicted that a market meltdown would have been this election's October surprise?
In NC it’s looks like he’d need half the Barr votes to win so yes he’d have gotten that.
He’d need nearly all in Indiana. Some would’ve not voted or voted and I’m sure some would have Gobama-ed (do we make enough words from “Obama” or what?). Some anti-war zealots.
“With 424 members, the General Court is the largest state legislature in the United States. The General Court is also the fourth-largest English-speaking legislative body in the world, behind the Parliament of the United Kingdom, the United States Congress, and the Parliament of India[1], and has one of the greatest disparities in size between chambers of a bicameral legislature.”
“If the same level of representation were present in Congress, the U.S. House of Representatives would have approximately 99,000 members according to current population estimates.”
Such a level of representation is only possible in tiny states, I kinda like it. Of course in 2006 so many rats won, many didn’t think they would, they didn’t want the job, they didn’t show up for work.
I noticed 1912 was the last time the rats one the state Senate before 98 Shaheen coattails. I’ve always assumed bull mousers ran candidates for everything that year.
A staple of mediocrity?
The margin was what really hit me.
Schuler hasn’t won statewide like Cooper but his alleged conservatism (faux) would be a big problem too cause morons eat that up. Cooper would be stronger though.
Least we’d get his house seat back. The sweetest victories are for rat seats were they lose primaries for higher office. Like Jane Harmon in Cali, course she won it back.
I hate it to say it but, those are strong rats. Burr might needs a anti-dem climate. In an even steven year/turnout slugfest Burr looks like a loser on paper.
The mindset of the NH GOP kind of reminds me of the IL DEMS. No downstate Dem need apply, because all the statewide slots are received for politicians kids from Chicago. That kind of arrogance caused the NH GOP to begin imploding in 2002, and it looks like it may have finally caught up with the IL DEMS now too.
Recall that McCain was up by double digits in two different polls from two different groups after the convention, then PPP started with their string of polls that suddenly showed a tight race. In fairness however, their last poll was pretty close to the results, and other pollsters, including the conservative Civitas Institute, were showing the same numbers as PPP along the way.
The only thing I’d question is the sudden drop that PPP showed directly after McCain showed a big lead.
What is it that convinces you that Jensen had some part in Obama’s moving his resources from GA to NC?
“Barr cost McCain Indiana, too.”
In an interesting twist, Obama supporters claim that Ralph Nader tipped Missouri to McCain.
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