Posted on 10/28/2008 4:31:32 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
Last I looked at places like 538.com and ElectionProjection, they were calling Nevada either "leans McCain" or "tossup". But this story in the Las Vegas Review Journal makes that assumption pretty suspect.
On the first day of early voting, 62 percent of Clark County voters were Democrats, while 23 percent were Republicans and the rest nonpartisans or members of minor parties. Through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans.
Ok, now pay close attention, the early voting gives Democrats a 26 point edge in in votes cast.
Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote.
Whoa! That is a heck of a lot of PUMAs. Let's take a look at the actual vote totals:
Through the end of voting Sunday, about 300,000 people had voted early statewide, a turnout of 24.9 percent of the state's 1.2 million active voters.
So if we do a little math, this means 150,000 people have voted Obama, and 148,000 for McCain. But 165,000 of the voters are Democrat, while 87,000 are Republicans. For these results to be valid, at least 13,000 Democrats have to have voted to McCain, and up to 61,000. Assuming that the Independents are splitting 50/50, this gives us about a 37,000 Democrat crossover votes, or 12% of the electorate, assuming 100% support for McCain among Republicans. Put more realistically, the Republicans in Nevada have a 12% advantage in crossover support.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
Any chance of getting the newspaper details from this report. The mixing of county and statewide conclusions makes the article almost worthless.
It would also be useful to compare it to 2004.
Fellow Elko County resident here: In ‘04 we got a visit from Cheney. In ‘06 Presdient Bush came to Elko to get out the vote for NV republicans. So far, all we have seen here in ‘08 is Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin’s brother. If Elko doesn’t generate enough McCain votes to help counteract the liberals in Clark County we are doomed. Elko Republicans need about 84% turnout to accomplish this. I hope we remember to vote.
50 bucks will get you two beers and a small bowl of pretzels.
Last poll I saw Porter is ok. Heller may have a problem with Derby who is a pure dem nut job.
Last poll I saw Porter is ok. Heller may have a problem with Derby who is a pure dem nut job.
Last poll I saw Porter is ok. Heller may have a problem with Derby who is a pure dem nut job.
There is no way that Democrats will outnumber Republicans by 55% to 29% by the time all the votes are counted in Nevada (I don’t really know what that number is, I am hoping you could provide some insight). And that does not count the Bradley Effect either. Also, I am unsure how to project the Hispanic support, or lack thereof, for McCain in other states.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania
ATTENTION: GOTV INFORMATION
http://ace.mu.nu/
October 28, 2008
GOTV Match-Up Thread
—Ace
Please, keep chatter to a minimum.
State where you are, where you can go, and if you’re offering or seeking transpo or lodging.
No digressions. Don’t make a maniac out of me. Do digressions, tips, and chitty-chat in an open thread post I’ll start now. Keep this clean of static. Just to match willing canvassers and phone-bankers with rides and beds.
Tips about buses and stuff McCain is offering is of course permitted.
Posted by Ace at 08:08 PM
Get On the Bus: GOTV Information Added
Rasmussen: Striking Distance in Pennsylvania
—Ace
Seven points.
Hey, NJ and NY morons. Even Connecticut morons. You know there’s not a damn thing you can do in your own states.
How about a working vacation for 2-3 days in Pennsylvania, Saturday through Sunday?
Pennsylvania’s nice. Lovely foliage this time of year. And it’s filled with racists and bitter clingy people with guns and Bibles, so you should fit right in.
It’s not that hard. And besides, you can go out and take over bars with your fellow morons after seven. Then maybe go out in your Ford trucks and run down homosexuals.
This is Sort of What I Mean By the GOP Getting on the
(More.....)
So now they are doing exit polling a week before the election??????????????????????????????????
These people will never learn. It’s one more reason to stick your finger in the Media’s Eye.
There is no way that Democrats will outnumber Republicans by 55% to 29% by the time all the votes are counted in Nevada (I don’t really know what that number is, I am hoping you could provide some insight).
I’m getting several calls a week to help with the “get out the vote here in SE Michigan. I got 2 mailers today from McCain Palin and one from Knollenberg. Our local victory center here is trying to recruit thousands for a massive 72 hour marathon get out the vote starting on Saturday. I get at least one recorded message a day.
>It buys you a half an hour of what obama would do to us for the next 4 years (if elected).<
In a high class whorehouse, one that pays county and state taxes, it would probably buy you directions to a streetcorner hooker because it sure won’t get you no timed loving.
Heller will be fine.
I’m in!
They did that with us last time too. Now nothing. If they can’t the base out here to vote.....they only have themselves to blame. But I will never ever GIVE UP!
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