Posted on 10/06/2008 6:33:32 AM PDT by CatOwner
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point. The Democratic candidate has gained six full percentage points of support since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the Wall Street mess ...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
but where’s McCain?
He said he was taking Monday and Tuesday to practice for tomorrow night.
You know I don't disagree.
I've noticed that some of the Doom-and-Gloom Drama Queens have gone from being merely remose to downright defensive and spiteful.
Kind of like Democrats.
I don't, either, but as near as I can figure out, OhBummer doesn't have to "do" anything. It's enough that he is of the party that is not in the WH, which always gets the blame in bad economic times. It happened to Bush in '92, Carter in '80, Hoover in '32 (Nixon escaped in '72 because his opponent was a buffoon). The voters get anxious and angry and the way they express that is to vote out whoever is in office and replace them with whoever is running against them. It doesn't matter what the opposition stands for, it enough that they are not-whomever.
What Wall Street wanted was the money without the intrusion. When the Senate added items like control or elimination of bonuses/golden parachutes to executives of companies that go along with the bailout, Wall Street started balking. There were articles over the weekend saying that many on Wall Street may bypass the bailout and take their chances.
The MSM got away with ignoring Biden's very long list of lies and mis-statements. Palin should heave read them out (all 15 minutes of them) at her California raly.
Bad economic news could be the real downfall for Obama. FOX News has been airing for the last three days segments showing how the Democrats cause this financial crisis. New McCain ads now running in states showing Obama’s connections to Fannie Mae. New ad running featuring Bill Clinton who says Democrats blocked the Republicans on oversight of Fannie Mae.
Democrats ramp up the crisis, then end up getting the blame. I hope McCain works it in at tomorrows debate. We’ll see.
Obama and Fannie Mae, nice connection to today’s crisis.
GW/Battleground was showing 3% Saturday and is now at +7% Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/BG_100608_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
Whatever I think about the polling methods or party ID weighting, it is the TREND within those methodologies that is disturbing. Unless all of these polling firms are cooking their numbers, the trends are not looking good.
What it boils down to is that Palin was a godsend for the Republican base. She energized it like no other could. But, she is a polarizing figure who probably has had a similar effect on the other side. She probably brought many Hillary Democrats who were grumbling about their close primary back into the fold, and it now appears that Independents are not really that fond of the McCain/Palin combination as of yet. Gallup’s tracker is up next.
The good news is that this election is probably harder to poll than previous elections, what with many people going cell phone only, increased call screening, disenchantment with politics in general, etc. There is also no way Obama would end up with a 7% margin in the end, even if he wins. The natural tightening that will no doubt occur before the election can become a sprignboard if it is significant enough to look like a weakening of Obama right before people go to the polls.
If McCain doesn’t knock the next debate out of the park, we should start a “draft Palin” movement and somehow convince, cajole or entice McCain to get out of the way and hand the reins to the stronger candidate, before America is lost.
Palin is clearly the strongest GOP candidate, in a generation.
It isn't. In 2000, he didn't weight his polls by party at all, and as I remember it in 2004 he used the 39D, 35R, 26I breakdown from the 2000 election. The actually breakdown was 37D, 37R, and 26I, with Bush winning nationally by 2.4 points.
Rasmussen is assuming -- wrongly, in my opinion -- that Ds are going to have at least a six point turnout advantage in 2008. This hasn't happened in any Presidential election since 1980. Indeed, since 1984 the spread has never been more than 4 points (1996 and 2000). In the 2006 mid-year election that was so bad for the GOP, the Dems had only a three point advantage.
As for the Presidential race, Obama now leads by two points among men. That’s the first time he has led among men all year and he also enjoys a fourteen point advantage among women. Obama attracts 12% of Republican voters and leads by eleven among those not affiliated with either major political party. McCain gets the vote from 11% of Democrats
Raise your hand if you think Obama will win among men on election day, and raise your hand if you think Obama will get more self identified Republicans on election day than McCain will get Democrats. Didn't think so, and yes Scott you are a joke my friend.
Well said
I think some of them have flipped or were weak willed to begin with. Or nervous nellies, or angry at something. There seemed to be more reason over the weekend so I’m guessing that the Queens took a much needed break over the weekend. Ah, fresh air and determination!
McCain’s too busy fumbling and stumbling all over himself over this economic meltdown.
Scottie Rigged this POll three to four weeks ago when he intentionally changed his trackling . So he is not tracking anything !
S called Brilliant Scottie had Bush winning by 8 points in 2000 and then he changed his turnout to 50/50 in 2004 and was close .
He is SWUNG back to the 7 point formulated advantage
to Obama .
No real reason given got this wild guess !
Yeah, I wonder if people were saying the same thing about Ronnie after he lost to Ford in ‘76.
That was primary not presidential.
While I believe the polls are significantly in Obama favors, I’m still not going to count on a McCain victory.
The world looks to be heading towards a depression. Sometimes, these days, I feel that if life’s going to stink anyway, might as well as taint Obama with it. Of course, this is the completely wrong strategy—Bush was facing the dotcom bust, but then 9/11 happened.
Remember this is the job of the polls to influence the “brain dead” and discourage conservative base. Keep fighting, this is not reality.
I suppose, but Obama is 100% clueless on the economy. At least Clinton had a *few* bona fides and connected with middle America to some degree.
One MAJOR problem I have with McCain is that he seems to think now is the time to go uber-populist. McCain isn’t going to win any votes doing that. Voters who like populism and class warfare are going to vote Democrat.
At this point, I really worry about the senate races. We desperately need to keep the losses down to 6 or so to be able to block the REALLY bad stuff like card check.
Okay, then what about when Nixon lost to Kennedy?
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