Given all the scrutiny now of Franken, I find it highly unlikely he could beat Coleman in a 2-man race. Franken has to watch his butt in the DFL primary, he may not get the nod. Barkley has no chance of winning in a 3-way (or in any way — it’s unlikely he’d get more than 15-20% of the vote under any circumstances — when he actually mounted campaigns for the Senate in the ‘90s, he maxed out at 7%). He’d be nothing more than a stand-in for Ventura and would divide Coleman’s opposition. The DFLers better pray that Ventura or Barkley doesn’t run, because if they do, Coleman won’t have to worry about a thing.
The view from the ground is very different. The DFL still largely dominates politics in this state; people think it’s becoming a swing state due to a strong year for the GOP in 2002 (which had a lot of unusual factors), but I think the 2006 showed pretty clearly this state hasn’t strayed much from its roots. We will likely lose the Senate seat, and we will very likely lose the House seat in the 3rd district. There’s even a decent chance we’ll lose the 6th district. I think it’s going to be a wipeout in Minnesota next year. I’ve seen polls that have Obama beating McCain by over 20 points.