“Speculators” just react to projections of supply and projections of demand. What we have right now is too many people getting into the game because interest rates are so low. They are not terribly disciplined so they react to rumors and the antics of Ahmanutjob and Chavez. When interest rates in the US normalize, the USD will rebound and oil will stop looking so attractive and the price will go down. When that will happen is anybody’s guess.
Uriah — you forgot to add to your analysis that when the oil prices eventually ‘normalize’ that a lot of the newer speculators are going to get burned. Happens in every speculative bubble.