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Are We Underestimating Obama?
Powerline ^ | Feb. 26, 2008 | Staff

Posted on 02/26/2008 8:26:45 PM PST by jdm

Scott's observations on Obamanations are a good introduction to this provocative piece by our friend Steve Hayes in today's Wall Street Journal. Steve's thesis is that the commonplace criticism of Obama, that he is all generalities and no substance, misses the mark. In fact, he compares Obama to Ronald Reagan, against whom similar criticisms were leveled. Steve includes our references to Obama as "Chance the Gardener," the character played by Peter Sellers in Being There, in his litany of conservative underestimation of Obama. Steve argues that Obama is more than that:

The assumption behind much of this criticism is that because Mr. Obama gives a good speech he cannot do substance. This is wrong. Mr. Obama has done well in most of the Democratic debates because he has consistently shown himself able to think on his feet. Even on health care, a complicated national issue that should be Mrs. Clinton's strength, Mr. Obama has regularly fought her to a draw by displaying a grasp of the details that rivals hers, and talking about it in ways Americans can understand.

In Iowa, long before the race became the national campaign it is today, Mr. Obama spent much of his time at town halls in which he took questions from the audience. His answers in such settings were often as good or better than the rhetoric in his stump speech, and usually more substantive. He spoke about issues like immigration and national service in a thoughtful manner -- not wonky, not pedantic, but in a way that suggested he'd spent some time thinking about them before.

More important for the race ahead, Mr. Obama has the unique ability to offer doctrinaire liberal positions in a way that avoids the stridency of many recent Democratic candidates. That he managed to do this in the days before the Iowa caucuses -- at a time when he might have been expected to be at his most liberal -- was quite striking.

Steve emailed us this morning to let us know about his piece and invite us to "feel free to smack [him] around on Power Line." Actually, though, I agree with him. Barack Obama is a very able man and a formidable opponent.

Conservatives complain about Obama's vagueness mostly because they want to expose the dedicated liberal lurking behind Obama's modeerate demeanor. In truth, though, Obama's liberalism is no secret. His voting record, the policy positions laid out on his web site, and his own answers to questions in debates and town hall meetings make it clear that he is an unreconstructed liberal.

Obama's appeal lies, in part, in his ability to make liberalism seem palatable. Unlike Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, he is generally not shrill or hectoring. He comes across as calm and reasonable. In this, he really does resemble Ronald Reagan.

There are obvious differences between Reagan and Obama, of course. Reagan was a life-long student of Communism, while Obama is not yet a life-long student of anything. Most important, Reagan was devoted to conservatism, which is essentially true, while Obama is devoted to liberalism, which is essentially false. This means that Obama's policies, no matter how smoothly he may advocate them, will never be as successful as Reagan's.

Here, though, lies the rub, in my view. Ronald Reagan came to power at a time when America had been carrying out, for sixteen years, an experiment with liberalism that by 1980 had brought the country to the brink of catastrophe. Americans did not adopt conservative principles because they sounded good on first hearing. They adopted conservative principles because of bitter experience with the alternative.

Today, the benefit of that experience has largely been lost. A generation of American voters has not experienced the failures of the Great Society, the near-collapse of American cities, double-digit inflation and unemployment, seventy percent tax brackets, or the disaster of Jimmy Carter's foreign policy. In the absence of historical memory, and with a powerful assist from the ever-forgetful press, liberalism is once again emerging as the philosophy that sounds good. The fact that it doesn't work awaits as an unpleasant surprise for a new generation. In the meantime, Barack Obama may well be the plausible candidate who can lead voters, once again, down the blind alley of leftism. He is, as Steve Hayes argues, an opponent who must be taken seriously.

Which doesn't preclude, of course, the occasional moment of ridicule when he slips into his Chance the Gardener mode.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: obama; underestimating
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1 posted on 02/26/2008 8:26:49 PM PST by jdm
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To: jdm
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2 posted on 02/26/2008 8:29:16 PM PST by newheart (The Truth? You can't handle the Truth. But He can handle you.)
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To: jdm

... and are we overestimating the wisdom of the American people? perhaps


3 posted on 02/26/2008 8:30:52 PM PST by plain talk
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To: jdm

Barry Hussein will probably win the presidency. That’s what y’all get with a corrupt “Two-Party Cartel’ run by the elites.


4 posted on 02/26/2008 8:30:57 PM PST by Digger (If RINO is your selection, then failure is your election)
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To: jdm

Never underestimate a Democrat with the liberal media behind him.


5 posted on 02/26/2008 8:31:03 PM PST by LdSentinal
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To: newheart
Big hat no cattle.

Empty cup no beer.

Beating Hillary at a debate is child's play for a good speaker. His grasp of details is a mile wide and 1/4" deep.

6 posted on 02/26/2008 8:32:29 PM PST by mad_as_he$$ (John McCain - The Manchurian Candidate? http://www.usvetdsp.com/manchuan.htm)
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To: jdm
It’s Obama speeches that are without substance. His candidacy is not - a totalitarian movement has finally found a “politically correct” demagogue as its front man.
7 posted on 02/26/2008 8:32:37 PM PST by alecqss
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To: jdm
No, we are underestimating the intellectual, spiritual, and emotional weakness of those who would vote for a nothingburger clad in an empty rhetorical bun.


8 posted on 02/26/2008 8:32:42 PM PST by Viking2002 (Rove, you magnificent bastard!)
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To: jdm
""Chance the Gardener,..."

It was Chauncy Gardener.

9 posted on 02/26/2008 8:36:21 PM PST by gorush (Exterminate the Moops!)
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To: jdm
Personally I think Obama is being overestimated. The Clintons were shell shocked by the racism charges. The media has protected him to the point where using his middle name and showing a picture of him in Somali garb is sacrilege.

The clown doesn't even know that Medvedev is Putins chosen successor.

Barack's hit the high water mark. From here on in his favorability ratings go down and his unfavorables go up.

And any incident involving America's security between now and November relegates Barack Hussein Obama to a seat in the Senate.

10 posted on 02/26/2008 8:37:39 PM PST by jwalsh07 (Obama, the King of Hope-a-Dope)
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To: gorush

It was also a caller to Rush’s show who was the first one to make the comparison.


11 posted on 02/26/2008 8:37:59 PM PST by penelopesire ("The only CHANGE you will get with the Democrats is the CHANGE left in your pocket")
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To: newheart
IMO, many people on this board are underestimating Obama. Obama will have the help of the MSM and all of Hollywood to make him look like the savior of mankind. In the meantime, Obama will be allowed to continue to say nothing like he does better than most.

The people of the US have been told that their life sucks for the last 8 years. Some of them have started to believe it. I think the voters really are looking for change. It is up to us to convince them that the change Obama would bring is not what we need.

12 posted on 02/26/2008 8:40:34 PM PST by goldfinch
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To: jdm

My son’s 4th grade class took a vote and Obama won by landslide.

These are 9-10 year olds.

Yes we are underestimating Obama’s appeal.


13 posted on 02/26/2008 8:41:44 PM PST by The_Republican (You know why Chelsea Clinton is so Ugly? Because Janet Reno is her Father! LOL! - Mac is Back!)
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To: goldfinch

the latest story is that actually Obama is running away from the media, declining interviews.


14 posted on 02/26/2008 8:44:02 PM PST by ari-freedom
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To: jdm

There are two things to say about the criticisms of Reagan for being dumb, and being simplistic.

“Simple solutions” was Jimmy Carter’s slogan in 1980. First of all, it was a stupid smear. It was mainly just a smear. Carter just couldn’t think of anything else to say.

Reagan offered a 30-percent cut in all income tax rates.

Carter offered a “targeted tax cut” for this and a “targeted tax incentive” for that and a “targeted tax credit” for this, etc. Hundreds of them. Blah. Blah. Blah. Every one of them a new tax form and a new set of regulations. But-—it wasn’t “simple.”

Obama is evil. A baby-killer. A socialist. An anti-American cheese-eating surrender-monkey.


15 posted on 02/26/2008 8:44:41 PM PST by Arthur McGowan
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To: mad_as_he$$
"His grasp of details is a mile wide and 1/4" deep."

Yeah but so is the majority of people in this country.


Obama is VERY capable of winning in the general election.

17,000 people in Boise Idaho came out to support him at a rally there. 17,000.... in BOISE.

He gets 15,000 to 20,000 people to show up nearly everywhere he goes. NOBODY gets that kind of crowd in a primary election ANYWHERE they go.

Even though he's been fighting The Beast - he's still been getting more supporters in primaries than all Republican candidates COMBINED.

Hollywood is supporting him.

The MSM is supporting him.

He's sounds as smooth as Barry White, says just enough for folks to fill in with their preconcieved wants - and hasn't made a single solitary mistake or misstep yet.

He's got almost 1,000,000 people who've donated to his campaign.

He's a liberal black politician who has, with very rare exceptions, effectively distanced himself from typical liberal black politicians.

He's also done the unimaginable for any mortal, let alone a rookie Senator - he's slain The Beast, and walked out of her lair hoisting her head on a spike and has nary a scratch to show from it.

He knows how to get people motivated and has a tremendous ground game.

Make no mistake - the guy's dangerous.



16 posted on 02/26/2008 8:46:47 PM PST by The_Macallan
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To: LdSentinal

Never underestimate a Democrat with the liberal media behind him.

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.
17 posted on 02/26/2008 8:49:03 PM PST by G8 Diplomat
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To: jdm
His rise is proof that people are hypnotized by articulate oration heavily laden with grandeur visions and poetry. IOW, style over substance.

I said last year he would beat Hillary. And he will be far more difficult to beat than Hillary.

18 posted on 02/26/2008 8:51:54 PM PST by rintense (You don't advance conservatism by becoming more liberal. Piss off McCain and Huck!)
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To: plain talk
I look at Obama as the next Hitler. Exactly like Hitler he is telling the people what they want to hear. He is promising them everything and anything to gain the power of CIC.
Why is that.
Is it for Party?
For Party ideology, or his hidden agenda and ideology, just like Hitler.
Already there has been riots and stabbings in the name of ideology. The same pitted against the same. All in the name of Hillary or Obama.
The next thing we’ll more than likely have is brown shirts in Berkley and Toledo rioting and sacking not only Recruiting stations but then Synagogues and churches.
The Farrakahn endorsement put me over the edge on this one.
19 posted on 02/26/2008 8:52:52 PM PST by Doc91678 (Doc91678)
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To: jdm
Obama and Obama-Momma will be the new, modern version of JFK's CAMELOT--only it will be the 'black version',,,,

"CAMELOT WITH AN ATTITUDE".

20 posted on 02/26/2008 8:53:13 PM PST by stockstrader
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