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3 things that are wild cards are California, Alaska, and West Virginia. I’ve not been able to find any legit polling for Alaska, only stories about how Paul could get 15%. ANWR is a big deal there(McCain opposes drilling) and Romney got Murkowski endorsement. Its not winner take all though.

Most sites list WV as not “winner take all” but IIRC it actually ends up that way. If no candidate gets 50%, they boot low man. Then if no candidate gets 50%, they boot the next low man. Then its a 2 man choice winner take all. Have not seen any polling in WV to know if it could go to McCain vs Romney or not.

California is listed as a “splitting” state but its actually “winner take all” in each district. In an extreme example, McCain could take 35% of the entire vote but get no delegates as long as Romney gets 1% more in each district. Obviously won’t happen that way but if Mccain’s support is concentrated in San Fran and other lib hotbeds, he could get crushed in delegate count even though he’s only 1% behind overall in the state.

If I’m off on any of this, feel free to correct. If you found any polling or other insights on these 3 states, please share-Thanks!