Threat Matrix: December 2007

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[nwctwx]

Calculating the Risks in Pakistan

A small group of U.S. military experts and intelligence officials convened in Washington for a classified war game last year, exploring strategies for securing Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if the country's political institutions and military safeguards began to fall apart.

The secret exercise — conducted without official sponsorship from any government agency, apparently due to the sensitivity of its subject — was one of several such games the U.S. government has conducted in recent years examining various options and scenarios for Pakistan's nuclear weapons: How many troops might be required for a military intervention in Pakistan? Could Pakistani nuclear bunkers be isolated by saturating the surrounding areas with tens of thousands of high-powered mines, dropped from the air and packed with anti-tank and anti-personnel munitions? Or might such a move only worsen the security of Pakistan's arsenal?
Full story...

	Musharraf: U.S. Shares Blame for Pakistan and Afghanistan
	Bin Laden's Message to the Europeans
	Messages from bin Laden Since 9-11

Threat Matrix:
December 2007

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[Cindy]

ON THE INTERNET:

http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/190365.php

[Cindy]

Note: The following text is a quote:

https://www.osac.gov/Reports/report.cfm?contentID=76601

YOU ARE HERE: Home > Reports > Safety and Security Reports > Report
Equatorial Guinea Mainland Attack
SAFETY & SECURITY
Sub-Saharan Africa - Equatorial Guinea
5 Dec 2007

Printer Friendly Email Article
ATTACHMENTS
EQUATORIAL GUINEA MAINLAND ATTACK
OSAC Equatorial Guinea Armed Attack 12 5 2007.doc
DOC (111k)
The following is a compilation of open source and U.S. Embassy reporting:

Overview

On the morning of December 5, a group of assailants attempted to rob two banks in Bata, Equatorial Guinea. Bata is the country’s second largest city, located on the continental portion of the country. The U.S. private sector operating in the area has increased its security posture.

Event Details

The attack took place at approximately 10:15 a.m. The group of about 20 attackers arrived by sea in at least two small boats called Cayucos, and docked along the Bata shore, a few blocks from Bata’s downtown business area. The attackers were wearing military style clothing and were armed with assault weapons. Eyewitnesses report the group had at least two AK style automatic rifles and one grenade launcher.

The men first fired shots inside the CCEI Bank in downtown Bata. Reportedly, an armed patron in the bank at the time of the attack shot back and the attackers fled. The group attempted to rob a second bank nearby, then fled to their boats and departed. The Government of Equatorial Guinea ordered helicopters to search the Gulf of Guinea waters with instructions to shoot to kill if the boats refused to stop.

One American citizen was directly affected by the incident. He was driving his car near one affected bank and the attackers opened fire on his car, shooting four to six bullets which narrowly missed the driver. At the time of this report, the identity of the attackers is unknown and there are no other reports of Americans directly affected in the attack.

Private Sector Impact

The Bata incident has taken many security managers by surprise, as there have been no similar recent attacks in the area. Particularly, the number of attackers carrying out a daylight attack with the use of boats, military-style uniforms and assault weapons are all elements unlike any criminal activity in Equatorial Guinea.

The U.S. private sector operating in Bata has increased its security posture, reminding employees to limit travel and remain vigilant. The Bata airport is closed as a result of the incident. Reports of looting in Bata’s business district have also been reported. Local press reports speculate a possible link between the Bata attack and the November 12 Bakassi Peninsula attack in Cameroon, during which 21 Cameroonian soldiers were killed; however OSAC is not aware of any credible reports indicating a connection.

[Cindy]

http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_1161.html

PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Fri Dec 07 2007 04:04:34 GMT-0800 (PST).

Worldwide Caution

October 09, 2007

[tmp02]

Thanks!

[Fedora]

I’m not sure that item was ever publicized, it was something I noticed buried in an FBI file that was declassified recently. But anyway, yeah, in the literature on organized crime there are many examples of the Mafia trafficking with other criminal, subversive, and terrorist groups as part of their broader smuggling business. This is logical if you think about it: if you want something illegal smuggled, they have the expertise to help get it. In particular, smuggling illegal weapons is one of their rackets and they will often serve as middlemen in obtaining weapons supplies for other groups. It’s not a big step from that to smuggling stolen nuclear material, etc.

[KylaStarr]

Here is the latest I can find about the ALF bomb threat to UCSD. The link contains another link to the actual phone threat, which the FBI has chosen to release.

http://www.cbs8.com/stories/story.110945.html

FBI Releases Tape of UCSD Bomb Threat Call
>>The FBI has released the tape recording of the phone call that was a bogus bomb threat against the UCSD campus.

An apparently bogus bomb threat, coupled with the subsequent discovery Wednesday of a suspicious object in a medical building at the UCSD campus, prompted the evacuation of several hundred students and faculty.

A telephone caller, reportedly of the Animal Liberation Front, issued the menacing message in the mid-morning, targeting the Leichtag Family Foundation Biomedical Research Building, university officials reported. ... <<

[Oorang]

Today’s STUCK ON STUPID winner just might be winner of the week. Thanks Cindy, I’m enjoying your daily SOS posts.

[Oorang]

Thank you Cindy.

[Oorang]

Thanks Kyla, I appreciate your efforts and the ping.

[Oorang]

Battle to retake key Taleban town
Friday, 7 December 2007

International and Afghan troops have begun a major offensive to retake a strategic town in southern Afghanistan from the Taleban, Nato sources said. Nato says Afghan and British ground troops used heavy gunfire against the Taleban on the outskirts of Musa Qala. It says the main assault will be carried out overnight by US soldiers who have been dropped in by helicopter.

The Taleban say they have 2,000 troops defending the town in Helmand province, which they seized in February. Musa Qala is the only substantial town the Taleban hold in Afghanistan. For now, they say they are holding their ground.

Excerpted

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7132405.stm

Defense officials concerned as Hamas upgrades Qassam arsenal
Fri., December 07, 2007 Kislev 27, 5768

Hamas has recently upgraded its Qassam rocket capability in the Gaza Strip, raising grave concern in the Israeli defense establishment.

Senior defense officials say that Hamas is now able to store the rockets for a relatively long period, which would allow the organization to launch a large number of Qassams at one time. Over the past year, the IDF and Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) have said that two developments could prompt a major Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip. One was an improvement in the range of the Qassam rockets, which would place Ashkelon within range. The other was an ability to store the rockets for a longer period of time. It seems that Hamas has already achieved the latter, and is close to achieving the other.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/932106.html

Two BLA ‘terrorists’ arrested in London
Friday, December 07, 2007

LONDON: British police arrested two alleged supporters of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a human rights campaigner said here on Thursday.

Scotland Yard said the two men, aged 25 and 39, were detained in raids on Tuesday in London on suspicion of “commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism”.

Excerpted

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007/12/07/story_7-12-2007_pg7_6

[Oorang]

Iraq: Syrian secret services tried to recruit al-Qaeda leader, claims operative
7 Dec.

Baghdad - Former al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (photo) was approached by Syrian intelligence services to collaborate with them before he was killed in Iraq, according to a former al-Qaeda operative. "The late al-Qaeda leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, rejected a collaboration offer advanced by Syrian secret services," said Shahada Jawhar, former head of terrorist training for al-Qaeda.

Jawhar revealed the collaboration offer and other details of the internal operations of al-Qaeda in Iraq, in an interview with TV network, al-Arabiya, to be telecast on Friday night. "The secret services sent a mediator who met Zarqawi in 2006 outlining the possibility of obtaining any kind of help, but Zarqawi rejected the offer because he didn't want to fight the Americans for the political interests of Syria," he said.

Jawhar said Zarqawi wanted only to defend Jihad, while the Syrians wanted to put pressure on the Americans and avoid opening a new front in the war in their country. During the broadcast, the former terrorist who goes by the nickname, Abu Omar, talks about how he left the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared in Lebanon to join Zarqawi's men in Iraq with the intention of training guerillas.

Excerpted

http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Security/?id=1.0.1643479610

NEFA Report: "The Influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Netherlands"
12/07/07

A new report is available for download authored by NEFA Director of Analysis and Research Ronald Sandee, titled "The Influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Netherlands."

A former senior analyst in the Dutch Defense Intelligence Service, Mr. Sandee attempts to "paint as complete a picture as possible of the Muslim Brotherhood's operations in the Netherlands" and its fairly "sophisticated infrastructure"--even at a local level. The report includes various sub-sections, including on the "Al-Aqsa Network in the Netherlands", "International Muslim Brotherhood Activity in the Netherlands", and "Independent Brotherhood-Linked Activities in the Netherlands."

http://www.nefafoundation.org/

[Cindy]

“...involvement with Qadafi during the Billygate scandal...”

Rumors over the years popped up regarding Billy, Billygate, Billy Beer, etc.

[Cindy]

“This is logical if you think about it: if you want something illegal smuggled, they have the expertise to help get it.”

Yep.

[Cindy]

Thanks for that update Kyla Starr.

Even though there apparently was not a bomb, but a suspicious package; ALF should always be taken seriously.

[Cindy]

You’re welcome Oorang.

I wish STUCK ON STUPID was rare; but it seems to be thriving in certain areas.

[Cindy]

Adding to the Syria file.

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936417/posts

“Deployed Airmen remember Pearl Harbor”
Air Force Link ^ | Capt. Mike Andrews
Posted on 12/07/2007 4:22:13 PM PST by SandRat
12/7/2007 - SOUTHWEST ASIA (AFPN)

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936423/posts

“[Houston: Illegal Mexican]Man shows up for urine test, arrested in ‘92 double murder”
Houston Chronicle ^ | Dec. 7, 2007 | KEVIN MORAN
Posted on 12/07/2007 4:25:52 PM PST by SwinneySwitch

[MamaDearest]

From Islamic mission to jihad

Islam is a one way street. You can enter it but you can't leave it. To leave is regarded as high treason punishable by death. A story in today's London Times about an imam's daughter, who converted to Christianity after fleeing an arranged marriage, is now under police protection after receiving death threats from her family, is an example of this. Her story is chilling, and provides a sobering reflection on what it is to be Muslim, or a Muslim convert to Christianity, in Britain today. By contrast, so-called Christians in England who convert to Islam are free and under no coercion or fear of death.

Basra's murderous militias tell Christian women to cover up or face death

The girls explained that they were Christians and that their faith did not call for headscarves. “He said: 'Outside this university you are Christian and can do what you want; inside you are not. Next time I want to see you wearing a hijab or I swear to God the three of you will be killed immediately',” Zeena recalled. Terrified, the girls ran home. They now wear the headscarf all the time.

[Cindy]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=alf

#

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936425/posts

“Animal-rights group admits vandalizing scientist’s home (OR)”
The Oregonian ^ | December 7, 2007 | Bryan Denson
Posted on 12/07/2007 4:27:31 PM PST by jazusamo

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “Animal-rights saboteurs have claimed responsibility for vandalizing the Portland home of a research scientist who uses monkeys to study the causes of premature birth in humans.

In a communique obtained by The Oregonian today, the Animal Liberation Front acknowledged striking two autos owned by Dr. Miles Novy with spray-paint graffiti and paint stripper.

“Novy’s reproductive research on primates has resulted in this senseless torture of one of natures most magnificant creatures,” ALF saboteurs wrote in a message sent to the Animal Liberation Press Office. “This blatant disregard for the earth, animals and it’s resources shall not go unseen by the ever-watching eyes of the ALF.”

Novy woke Thursday morning to find the words “sadist” and “ALF” spray painted in red on his vehicles. Paint stripper had left white marks on the cars.

“It’s time to fight back,” the ALF wrote. “The only reason why people like Miles Novy sleep at night is because we let them.”

The ALF, described by the FBI as one of the nation’s leading domestic terrorist organizations, struck Novy’s home in the early hours Thursday as the scientist and his family slept.

Novy is the second research scientist at OHSU’s Oregon National Primate Research Center to have his property vandalized by the ALF this year. Last July, the group struck the home of Dr. Eliot Spindel, who uses monkeys to study ways to block fetal damage caused by pregnant smokers.

The Animal Liberation Front claimed responsibility for spray-painting Spindel’s Lake Oswego garage door with the words, “ALF eyes on you!” And in an anonymous e-mail issued through the Animal Liberation Press Office, the saboteurs threatened that if Spindel did not quit the “torture industry,” their next attack might include firebombs.”