Republicans IA NH SC
Brownback 2% 1% 1%
Gingrich 5% 6% 7%
Giuliani 21% 20% 23%
Huckabee 4% 3% 1%
Hunter 2% 1% 1%
Keyes 1% 1% -
McCain 11% 20% 15%
Paul 2% 3% 2%
Romney 22% 24% 26%
Tancredo 1% 1% 1%
F Thompson 16% 8% 10%
Undecided 13% 12% 13%
National Primary Republicans
Rep (88%) Ind (12%) Men (52%) Women (48%)
Brownback 1% - 1% 1%
Gingrich 22% 38% 17% 31%
Giuliani 6% 2% 9% 2%
Huckabee 5% - 4% 4%
Hunter 1% - 1% 1%
McCain 14% 16% 7% 22%
Paul 1% - - 2%
Romney 10% 3% 5% 13%
Tancredo 2% - 2% 1%
F Thompson 23% 25% 37% 7%
Undecided 15% 16% 17% 16%
Note that Ron is barely on the radar as of September, 2007 based on this poll in New Hampshire. Interestingly enough, in the national poll, less than a noticable amount of INDEPENDENTS (who I've been told will make the difference in a Presidential campaign) are jumping on the bandwagon.
As for Texas, the results look little better for Ronnie.
IVR Polls
8/29/2007
Texas
w/o Newt Gingrich
Fred Thompson 25%
Rudy Giuliani 21%
Mitt Romney 15%
Mike Huckabee 13%
John McCain 8%
Ron Paul 5%
Unsure 5%
Other 8%
Not impossible, but highly improbable.
Again, polls are meaningless for now. Keep in mind that NH is a very libertarian-independent state and the blogs got Paul at 25%. Paul could take the state easily or come in 2nd to Fred.