Mrs. Clinton may be a good example of why the front-runner designation is so ephemeral. Mr. Obama has arguably outpaced her in fund-raising and crowds. Both Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards have held their own in winning endorsements.
Hmmmm.
The primary is not determined by crowds, endorsements, or even fundraisers ... but by votes.
OTOH, fundraising drives campaigning, crowds indicate voter enthusiasm, and those together drive the voting ...
“The campaign - the real one - could change everything. Barack Obama will have something on the order of $60 million to communicate to primary voters. Clinton, of course, will be equally well-funded. But the point is that, as far as the average voter is concerned, the media dialogue is about to be drowned out by the the actual campaign. Right now, the media and political elites are the ones largely influencing polling numbers. Starting next month, the candidates are going to be the ones influencing those numbers. And so, average voters are going to have an opportunity to hear Clinton and Obama. Both of them will have an opportunity to say their piece, and have their piece heard, prior to Election Day. Accordingly, the way in which the average person’s vote choice is informed is quite different than the way in which the average person’s selection in a July poll is informed.”
This is reason #1 to be worried about Guiliani’s candidacy.
Not just his poll numbers, but his money and the whole package... he could buy the nomination, and GOP primary voters may be foolish enough to fall for it.