[RDTF]

sounds like Cozumel is more directly in the path?

[Rte66]

Just saw a little more upclose imagery and it’s still looking like MonkeyLand to me - north of Chetumal and south of Tulum.

That may be my wishful thinking making my eyes play tricks on me, but our local TV met specifically said “we’ve had a lot of calls about Ambergris Caye and it looks like they will be spared, on the clean side, but will just have high wave action.”

They have a reporter on the ground in Chetumal, so I’ll keep y’all updated when they have him on.

[dirtboy]

If the current track holds, Dean will hit land far enough south that Cozumel won't feel the worst effects - nothing like what happened with Wilma or Gilbert or Roxanne or Emily or all the other direct hits they've taken over the years.

Chetumal, on the other hand, is probably hosed. They got drilled by another Cat 5 (Janet) fifty years ago. So you've got a city of 135,000 people that is in harm's way, but that's better than a direct hit further north on the tourist areas.

A few days ago, I posted that Dean was going to hose someone, so all we can hope for is for him to take the path of least hosing. So far he's doing mostly that - he spared Jamaica and the Caymans from a direct hit, and is headed for probably the least damaging (from an economic and human life viewpoint) place to make landfall on the Yucatan. Plus, going over the Yucatan will cut him back down below major hurricane level, which means second landfall won't be as bad. If Dean had missed Yucatan and gone into the Gulf withoug passing over land, well, woof...