Hurricane Dean Live Thread Part III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 20 August 2007 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula today, packing winds over 150 mph. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft aborted its mission Monday morning due to equipment problems. The storm is expected to attain catastrophic Category 5 status today. The Cayman Islands have been spared the brunt of the storm's winds as Dean passed 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.

Jamaica continues to assess damage to its infrastructure after Dean uprooted trees, knocked down power lines, stripped off roofs, and dumped up to 20 inches of rain, causing mudslides in the mountains. The government of Jamaica has declared a month-long state of emergency. Haiti has reported four fatalities. The Dominican Republic reported a 20ft storm surge. Martinique lost its banana crops. Additional details are scarce at this point due to extensive power outages.

Alcoa suspended aluminum production in Jamaica. Mexico evacuated thousands of workers from oil platforms. Texas mobilized the National Guard, opened emergency operations centers and moved inmates inland from three prisons in advance of the storm.

Space shuttle Endeavour is returning home Tuesday, a day early due to Hurricane Dean.

In other storm news, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin caused massive rains and flooding in Oklahoma Sunday. Two people have drowned, and three are reported missing at this time.

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Additional Resources:

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Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Tuxedo]

I am having trouble getting into the www.sfwmd.gov site. Any suggestions? It appears to be DNS related.

[NCjim]

Works for me - here is the address:

Non-authoritative answer:
Name: tuxweb.sfwmd.gov
Address: 141.232.1.25
Aliases: www.sfwmd.gov

[FlJoePa]

...where are all the naysayers who poo-poo-ed all the hurricane predictions?

Global warming (whatever it is) has no effect or affect on hurricanes. That doesn’t mean we don’t have hurricanes.

The Atlantic Storm Season is heating up, and being a block from the ocean in South Florida, I’m not feeling so good right now. I’ve been there done that - the 15 days at a time w/ no power. What I haven’t experienced is what these people are about to go through.

Pray for the people in Mexico and beyond that will suffer from this storm and tell your neighbor that hurricanes DO happen and will ALWAYS happen, and they aren’t to be taken lightly. Nor are the expert’s predictions of them and their severity at the beginning of the season.

[NautiNurse]

I uploaded the current model run to my server. This graphic will not update with future runs.

[RDTF]

Chetumal

[Rte66]

Here’s more detail on “where” the people are in the path, from a message by a resident of Playa del Carmen on the stormcarib board, although it doesn’t give numbers:

~~~~
The federal highway 307, that runs from Cancun to Chetumal will be closed at Tulum for south bound traffic starting at 3:00pm (you do not want to get caught on the jungle road during a storm)
.
The major population centers that are in the direct path is ‘”Felipe Carrillo Puerto” Felipe is down the jungle road from Tulum and was the Mayan Capital during the Chaste war, for Mayan Independence (they lost).

Based on 11:00am position

Felipe closest point of approach 30 miles (right quadrant)

Farther south is the town of Bacalar, closest point of approach 35 miles

The largest population center to be affected is Chetumal, the Capital of Quintana Roo , closest point of approach 40 miles.

The people who are in the most dire position is Mahahual and the Costa Maya,

closest point of approach 10 miles.
~~~~

[CindyDawg]

I thought that too but someone told me it’s not the same guy.

[Ditter]

I remember Claudette, we lived in Bailey’s Prairie at the time.

[Tuxedo]

I can get to it vie Blackberry but not through RoadRunner. Odd..

[HollyB]

Thank you, great picture of the town. I’m not html literate, so you’ll have to do with my links, lol.

[Rte66]

Oops, I forgot you had already listed the towns and populations. Sorry I repeated.

[Tuxedo]

Awesome! Thanks NN!

[steveegg]

Looks like one hellova monsoon in a couple days for Arizona.

[NCjim]

Occasionally RR switches nameservers - have you tried

ipconfig /release
ipconfig /renew

or is it just that hostname that can't be resolved?

[NautiNurse]

[Tuxedo]

just that hostname cannot be resolved. tried firefox too, no go.

[Rte66]

Foodie that I am, I wonder if they’re good with peas and rice.

[PeteB570]

Buoy 42056, Yucatan basin, 12-meter discus buoy.

Still hanging in there at 19.87N/85.06W.

Winds...42.7knots gusting to 52.4knots
Waves...35.8 feet

The waves are as high as the critter is wide - almost.

[steveegg]

Alternate IP-address link for the sfwmd.gov storm plot graphic.

That will bypass the name servers.

[spectre]

Thanks, RT66.

Joe, I AM worried about you all in Florida. There are still people in MS and Alabama who haven't seen a roof repair since Katrina. And then there is the "insurance" factor, with horrible premium increases and most companies refusing to issue new policies, etc.

It's wicked these days.

sw