912 mb with sustained winds 160 mph, higher gusts
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Posted on 08/20/2007 8:12:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula today, packing winds over 150 mph. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft aborted its mission Monday morning due to equipment problems. The storm is expected to attain catastrophic Category 5 status today. The Cayman Islands have been spared the brunt of the storm's winds as Dean passed 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.
Jamaica continues to assess damage to its infrastructure after Dean uprooted trees, knocked down power lines, stripped off roofs, and dumped up to 20 inches of rain, causing mudslides in the mountains. The government of Jamaica has declared a month-long state of emergency. Haiti has reported four fatalities. The Dominican Republic reported a 20ft storm surge. Martinique lost its banana crops. Additional details are scarce at this point due to extensive power outages.
Alcoa suspended aluminum production in Jamaica. Mexico evacuated thousands of workers from oil platforms. Texas mobilized the National Guard, opened emergency operations centers and moved inmates inland from three prisons in advance of the storm.
Space shuttle Endeavour is returning home Tuesday, a day early due to Hurricane Dean.
In other storm news, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin caused massive rains and flooding in Oklahoma Sunday. Two people have drowned, and three are reported missing at this time.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Cancun Radar Caution- very prone to overload with high traffic
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Cayman One Radio Nice music mix, and hourly news
Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Max Mayfield said it’s the difference between being hit by a Mack truck or a train - either way, it’s baaadd!
REPOST
Mon 20 Aug - 07:30 pm CDT
Live from Chetumal: Dead calm in a ghost town.
I just took a walk. Chetumal is a very, very provincial city. I’m not criticizing it— I’m just saying. I’m in the downtown area and there’s nothing even to photograph. Like L.A., it’s a low-rise city— with very few buildings above three stories— but everything is rundown and dilapidated— even in the main strip with all the hotels. This is not a tourist destination. I took a few pics, but felt almost uncomfortable walking around with a digital camera.
The streets are almost empty. Most windows are boarded up, covered with aluminum shutters, or taped. It’s cloudy, humid, and dead calm. It’s like a post-apocalyptic world.
I stopped at a little store— one of the few that was open— and bought a bunch of multigrain bars. THese will be dinner tonight, because everything is closed.
I was glad to get back to my hotel and find the lobby buzzing with activity— including what seem to be lots of TV people. I’m not riding this out alone, praise the lord.
I spoke with Turtle on the telephone a few minutes ago, and he advised me of the due-W motion. As I said to him, this is one of the few ‘canes where I’m totally cool being in the left eyewall. I’m not sure I really need right-front quad with this one.
If I have time, I’ll try to upload some pics in a bit. Thanks again to everyone for your well wishes and encouragement. I’ll admit I’m nervous. This is one wicked cyclone coming.
END REPOST
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=&showtopic=139960&view=findpost&p=2073417
Remind me not to vacation in the Caribean ocean area, this time of year! This could end up being a mess!
Dean is now a Cat 5 I believe... would expect special advisory
URNT12 KNHC 210029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/2346Z
B. 18 DEG 17 MIN N
085 DEG 00 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2359 M
D. 121 KTS
E. 318 DEG 9 NM
F. 047 DEG 156 KTS
G. 318 DEG 08 NM
H. 914 MB
I. 9 C/ 3047 M
J. 21 C/ 3053 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02/2 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 30
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NW QUAD 2358Z
ahh, there was one!
709
WTNT64 KNHC 210034
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
835 PM AST MON AUG 20 2007
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Pressure dropped again—and those winds are giving me a sick feeling in the pit of my gut.
Cat 5 now as per Weather Channel.
WOW this storm chaser is right in its path...
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=139960&st=740
sw
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
000 URNT12 KNHC 210029 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 20/2346Z B. 18 DEG 17 MIN N 085 DEG 00 MIN W C. 700 MB 2359 M D. 121 KTS E. 318 DEG 9 NM F. 047 DEG 156 KTS G. 318 DEG 08 NM H. 914 MB I. 9 C/ 3047 M J. 21 C/ 3053 M K. 17 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C16 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02/2 NM P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 30 MAX FL WIND 162 KT NW QUAD 2358Z
Major observations: - Flight-level winds up from 155 knots to 162 knots.
- Pressure down 2 mb to 914 mb.
- Motion over the last 44 minutes - 288 degrees (probably within the margin of error) at 20.5 mph.
Hey there, CD ... I was just reminded of something. I asked if you had been in Alvin for Claudette and I’d forgotten there had been a Hurr Claudette in 2003.
That’s NOT the one I meant, in case I confused you. I was talking about Trop Storm Claudette that hit Alvin in 1979. It set the US record for most rain in a 1-day period, which still stands.
When I went to check whether it’s still the record, I also found a funny monkey story for everybody, lol!
~~~~~
ALVIN — Nolan Ryan isn’t Alvin’s only claim to fame.
The hometown of baseball’s strikeout king holds the dubious record for the largest 24-hour rainfall in the continental United States.
On July 25-26, 1979, Tropical Storm Claudette dropped 43 inches of rain on Alvin and the surrounding Brazoria County countryside, according to the National Weather Service.
....
Alvin Police Chief Mike Merkle, then a detective, said he spent the entire ordeal rescuing people, including an invalid woman from her flooded apartment.
“We were taking her out on a stretcher and trying to keep her above water. But we didn’t know she had a pet monkey,” Merkle said.
The monkey jumped out onto the back of Larry Jackson, the other officer carrying the stretcher.
“I’m trying to hold the stretcher, Larry is trying to get this monkey off his back, yelling, `He’s eating me, he’s eating me,’ and she’s screaming, `Don’t hurt my monkey, don’t hurt my monkey,’ “ Merkle said with a laugh.
~~~~~
>>>>Add’l note to you - the Hou reporter who is on SPI right now must not be “from here,” lol. He called it “Saint Padre” and then mentioned “Harling - gun.”
~~~~
BREAKING: Recon now says 160mph! Cat 5!
Now I took too long analyzing ;-)
Isn’t 914mb awfully low....and historically low?
There was “Janet” (1955)- Lesser Antilles 914 mb, a category 5 hurricane!
Pardon my typo with the pressure. It is 914 mb.
914 makes this at least a top 10 list storm (tied)
It’ll be 912 before long; unfortunately, there won’t be a plane around to record it.
Good grief, I haven’t been paying attention to this for most of the day, and I see it’s gotten worse. May God bless and protect everyone in the path of this hurricane. Thanks, NautiNurse, for this fine thread, and thanks, fellow FReepers, for the excellent contributions.
Is that what it is? I noticed when I came out from work to ride my motorcycle home, in Houston, that it suddenly felt cooler and drier. Almost eerily so. SOmebody said something earlier about eerily cool, I think I know what they meant.
2005 Hurricanes Wilma, Rita and Katrina reached 882, 895 and 902 mb, respectively.
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