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Posted on 08/20/2007 8:12:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula today, packing winds over 150 mph. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft aborted its mission Monday morning due to equipment problems. The storm is expected to attain catastrophic Category 5 status today. The Cayman Islands have been spared the brunt of the storm's winds as Dean passed 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.
Jamaica continues to assess damage to its infrastructure after Dean uprooted trees, knocked down power lines, stripped off roofs, and dumped up to 20 inches of rain, causing mudslides in the mountains. The government of Jamaica has declared a month-long state of emergency. Haiti has reported four fatalities. The Dominican Republic reported a 20ft storm surge. Martinique lost its banana crops. Additional details are scarce at this point due to extensive power outages.
Alcoa suspended aluminum production in Jamaica. Mexico evacuated thousands of workers from oil platforms. Texas mobilized the National Guard, opened emergency operations centers and moved inmates inland from three prisons in advance of the storm.
Space shuttle Endeavour is returning home Tuesday, a day early due to Hurricane Dean.
In other storm news, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin caused massive rains and flooding in Oklahoma Sunday. Two people have drowned, and three are reported missing at this time.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
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Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Cancun Radar Caution- very prone to overload with high traffic
Additional Resources:
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Cayman One Radio Nice music mix, and hourly news
Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
It doesn’t matter if the pressure warrants it, the Saffir-Simpson scale is based on sustained wind speeds alone.
Oh, and the winds have to be *above* 155 mph to be classified as a Cat 5. Since they measure in 5 mph increments, the speed will have to be 160 mph.
Damn, but it looks like 42056 is taking a beating.
I know... CNN was playing in my gym this afternoon and the bobblehead really couldn’t contain her excitement. Bunch of vultures.
Somebody using a whatever-to-english dictionary is likely to copy the word correctly, but the dictionary will not give him clues as to grammar
000 URNT12 KNHC 202339 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 20/2302Z B. 18 DEG 13 MIN N 084 DEG 47 MIN W C. 700 MB 2347 M D. 117 KTS E. 209 DEG 8 NM F. 291 DEG 110 KTS G. 211 DEG 09 NM H. 915 MB I. 11 C/ 3051 M J. 21 C/ 3031 M K. 18 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C16 N. 12345/7 O. 0.06/3 NM P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 26 MAX FL WIND 155 KT NE QUAD 2306Z
Main observations:
- If there was an ERC, it's now complete.
- Pressure down 1 mb to 915 mb.
- Max flight-level winds up to 155 knots.
- Motion over the last 2:00 277 degrees at 19.9 mph.
And the waves are 31.2 feet.
Thats a 12 meter round discus buoy and the waves are 31.2 feet. Imagine the ride on that critter right now.
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 20, 2007
...Hurricane Dean very near category five strength... ...Outer bands arriving along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the entire coastline of Belize...along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from the Belize/Mexico border northward to Cancun...and along the West Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Progresso southward to ciudad del Carmen. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect on the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Cancun to Progresso. A tropical storm watch is in effect from west of ciudad del Carmen to Veracruz. A tropical storm watch also remains in effect for the following provinces of Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...and Isla de la Juventud. Interests elsewhere in the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Dean. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 18.2 north...longitude 85.1 west or about 210 miles... 335 km...east of Chetumal Mexico. Dean is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the hurricane is expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula very early Tuesday morning. However...conditions are already beginning to deteriorate along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Reports from an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 155 mph...245 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is expected later tonight...and Dean is likely to become a category five hurricane prior to making landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 915 mb...27.02 inches. Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula...Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is possible in the Cayman Islands. Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of where Dean makes landfall along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...18.2 N...85.1 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure...915 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Knabb/Roberts
I was one mph off; still officially a 4, but winds are up to 155 mph.
Atlantic Floater 1 shows the eye back on a due west track...
Could this Storm wind up in China../?
915mb/155kt winds... very close to cat 5 now. The weather board I run has a member who has travelled to Chetumal to intercept the storm... nervous for him.
000
URNT12 KNHC 202339
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/2302Z
B. 18 DEG 13 MIN N
084 DEG 47 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2347 M
D. 117 KTS
E. 209 DEG 8 NM
F. 291 DEG 110 KTS
G. 211 DEG 09 NM
H. 915 MB
I. 11 C/ 3051 M
J. 21 C/ 3031 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.06/3 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 26
MAX FL WIND 155 KT NE QUAD 2306Z
I think they were wet and were given dry clothes:’)
...Hurricane Dean very near category five strength...
...Outer bands arriving along the East Coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the entire coastline of
Belize...along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from the
Belize/Mexico border northward to Cancun...and along the West Coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Progresso southward to
ciudad del Carmen. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect on the Yucatan Peninsula
from north of Cancun to Progresso.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from west of ciudad del Carmen
to Veracruz. A tropical storm watch also remains in effect for the
following provinces of Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...and Isla
de la Juventud.
Interests elsewhere in the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely
monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 18.2 north...longitude 85.1 west or about 210 miles...
335 km...east of Chetumal Mexico.
Dean is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and a
westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24
hours. On this track the center of the hurricane is expected to
make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula very early Tuesday morning.
However...conditions are already beginning to deteriorate along the
East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now
near 155 mph...245 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is an extremely
dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Some strengthening is expected later tonight...and Dean is likely
to become a category five hurricane prior to making landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km.
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft was 915 mb...27.02 inches.
Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
over the Yucatan Peninsula...Belize...Guatemala...and northern
Honduras...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible in the Cayman Islands. Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18
feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of
where Dean makes landfall along the East Coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula.
Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...18.2 N...85.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph.
Minimum central pressure...915 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb/Roberts
Shep Smith (Fox News) just announced Cat-5, wind speeds 156 mph.
The location of Buoy 42056 is 19.87 N & 85.06 W.
Basicly the 85/19 line intersection on RobFromGa’s link, near the end of the loop.
31.2 foot waves and that far from the eye.
Hey, you mean Josh? I’m a Storm2K poster most years, but haven’t been lately. The core group when it started was my first forum online - we had formed from the PB board/Lowe’s. Were you around then?
Should say up near the 20/85. Oops, whats 1 degree among friends.
He’s wrong. it’s the highest lvl of cat 4 possible right now at 155.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
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