Hurricane Dean Live Thread Part III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 20 August 2007 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula today, packing winds over 150 mph. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft aborted its mission Monday morning due to equipment problems. The storm is expected to attain catastrophic Category 5 status today. The Cayman Islands have been spared the brunt of the storm's winds as Dean passed 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.

Jamaica continues to assess damage to its infrastructure after Dean uprooted trees, knocked down power lines, stripped off roofs, and dumped up to 20 inches of rain, causing mudslides in the mountains. The government of Jamaica has declared a month-long state of emergency. Haiti has reported four fatalities. The Dominican Republic reported a 20ft storm surge. Martinique lost its banana crops. Additional details are scarce at this point due to extensive power outages.

Alcoa suspended aluminum production in Jamaica. Mexico evacuated thousands of workers from oil platforms. Texas mobilized the National Guard, opened emergency operations centers and moved inmates inland from three prisons in advance of the storm.

Space shuttle Endeavour is returning home Tuesday, a day early due to Hurricane Dean.

In other storm news, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin caused massive rains and flooding in Oklahoma Sunday. Two people have drowned, and three are reported missing at this time.

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Additional Resources:

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Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[TexasGunLover]

We regularly visit the Royal Hideaway in Playa del Carmen. If this is anything like Rita/Katrina (forget which one hit Playa) you won’t be going on your trip in late September. Most of Playa del Carmen was closed for 6 months after that hit...

[Rte66]

I’ve done my part.

[Rte66]

That was Wilma.

[CindyDawg]

I was getting cranky so I went and took a nap. I come back and there is a scroll on my tv for 211 help for Hidalgo County. What is going on here?

[steveegg]

Hey, hey. It’s been too long.

[dirtboy]

Don’t forget Emily beat up that area pretty good a few months before Wilma. A lot of hotels were just getting opened back up after Emily when Wilma hit.

[Rte66]

I know Gilbert was 888, in 1988. My business partner was stranded in Cancun after that for several days in a scenario right out of “Survivor.”

[Rte66]

Yeah, I knew Emily was bad, but was thinking it was Wilma where we all followed the tourist evacs and there were so many problems.

I’ve done so much online emergency liaison hurricane work for so many years (not anymore, tho - too sick) that they all run together and I can’t recall details unless reminded.

[BenLurkin]

I came across a sadYahoo thread while searching for an authoritative answer to the question of whether Dean could affect California weather. Literacy in America is in jeopardy:

“Do you wish Hurricane Dean go to California that need rain if Dean keep go westward?”

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070817171228AA76j2y

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

LOL,,,True Dat,,,;0)

[PeteB570]

Waves now at 22 feet, 40 knot winds

[blam]

"Hey, hey. It’s been too long."

I'm lurking in the background.

I posted the map of Mexico because it looks like Mexico City could be heavily impacted if Dean stays on the present course...albeit, the mountains could diminish that threat some.

[HollyB]

I’m glad Coz did ‘ok’ during Wilma. I visited Cancun & Isla Mujeres 8 months after Wilma and it was a disaster, it looked pretty bad. Went back again a month ago. (mainly Isla, but 3 free nights at the Marriott because of the problems the year before). They were back on their feet this year, but prices were very expensive in Cancun. Much higher than the previous year.

Cancun had to repump an entire new beach which took over a year since it had to be done twice. They Refurnished most hotel rooms because of water damage/window breakage.

Now surprisingly, Isla Mujeres(a poor, fishing island) only 4 miles in length seem to have much less visible damage. But, the locals still talk about it as if it was a 3 day long nightmare.

That’s what is so difficult about this storm. They ‘just’ recuperated.

[sweet_diane]

Hi blam :)

Saw your post on the other thread...had to come here to say hi since the other thread has been closed. Been keeping an eye oh Dean. Don't know if I could make it thru hurricane season without NNs threads anymore!

I'm down at the Gulf this week (with gas prices, who wants to drive somewhere for vactaion!) Thought I'd see why everyone comes down and rents a condo.lol Pretty nice! Got in after summer rate drop.

Good 'seeing' you again!

[steveegg]

If Dean's getting close to a 5, then it must be time for an ERC...

000
URNT12 KNHC 202202
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/21:37:20Z
B. 18 deg 09 min N
  084 deg 11 min W
C. NA  mb 2371 m
D. 104 kt
E. 087 deg 009 nm
F. 206 deg 126 kt
G. 098 deg 011 nm
H.        916  mb
I.  10 C/ 3046 m
J.  20 C/ 3041 m
K.  13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO16-30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.03 /  1 nm
P. AF303 1404A DEAN OB 20
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 19:18:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 47 / 7NM
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NW QUAD 21:08:50 Z

Motion over the last 2:14 - 278 degrees at 15.8 mph.

[Rte66]

I’ve only heard about Cameron County and it wasn’t specific - just that the Guard troops who were released from our part of the Coast were being sent down there.

I know the Salvation Army is staging food service trucks from Laredo, each to feed 1500 meals per day.

I also heard about buses going to McAllen much earlier today. Also, they have 3000 buses readied now, up from the 1300 earlier, staging in SA. I don’t really know much, lol!

[Rte66]

Bizarro ESL grammar, yet spells and uses the word “dissipates” correctly. Something fishy there!

[CindyDawg]

Now we are getting a flash flood warning in Wilacy county (a little north of me) Interesting, they say parts of 77 could flood. That is one of our 2 evacuation routes. RTT, they have got to be expecting some water. Either that are we are having the granddaddy of all drills.

[orlop9]

Wave height at buoy 42056 is 29.5 ft, I don’t think it’ll be online much longer...

[Rte66]

Hmmm. That must be the low that we’re also supposed to get rain from, starting tomorrow.

Oh, Doc Neil Frank is on the tube now (local TV met who used to be director of the NHC), saying he’s still a little worried about *that low* and whether it’s moving west fast enough - or is it going to stall?

If it stalls, then Dean could still turn north after the Yucatan, once in the GoMex, and your neck of the woods could still have some Dean probs. But, that’s next Wednesday.