Common Tator can write well, but his argument does not hold water.
It is based on his own opinions of the electorate. Real pols show that a majority of american hold conservative views (sorry, I dotn have a source, offhand) and so it follows that a clear conservative voice always wins. (Witness Renaldus Magnus and Newt Gingrich in 2002)
Newt Gingrich in 2002
???
I'd like to see him win in 2007-2008, but I don't remember 2002.