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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1738103/posts?page=1

Kabar, I agreed with you about the US House 2008 until I saw this. Here is the data. In this case the situation is actually much better for the Republicans then it seems at 1st blush. I think the Democrats are smart enough to know this data too. I do not expect much from this Congress. They are not stupid. Dems know rocking the boat too much will make these seats harder to hold on too. Repbos lost seats in 1996 and 1998. They managed to hold on by winning seats elsewhere. Now the Dems got a lot of seats to defend in hostile territory. They are going to have to do triage. Not going to be able to throw gobs of money around to pick off vulnerable seats like they did this year.

I suspect these 58 Dems know this and are not too interested in rocking the boat. Plus the newbies elected this year are a lot more vulnerable in the 1st reelection campaign then you seem to think

CFR and the power of incumbency make it a lot harder but with good candidates in the Districts and a strong Presidential win it is possible to pick up 15 of these and flip the US House back to us.

It will be difficult to do but not impossible.

I suspect these 58 Dems know this and are not too interested in rocking the boat. Plus the newbies elected this year are a lot more vulnerable in the 1st reelection campaign then you seem to think.

I don't buy the Norquist premise. All elections are local. Using the Bush/Kerry data is not necessarily indicative today. Maybe Bush couldn't carry those districts if he ran last Tuesday. We have two Dem senators from Montana and North Dakota and two Rep senators from Maine. Once an incumbent gets in, they can campaign for the next two years to keep their seats. The Senate seats don't come up again for six years.

When you look at Dem reps like Gene Taylor, Ike Skelton, Loretta Sanchez, Henry Cuellar, Mollohan, etc. I see plenty of Dems who are not vulnerable no matter whether the district went for Bush or not. Many of them are conservative Dems and have been in Congress for some time. I would have to look at each of the 58 to see how vulnerable they really are. My guess is not that many from just a cursory review.

I agree about not rocking the boat. There is no way they are going to try to impeach Bush. The Dems know that this could threaten their newly obtained majority. They will go after the easy ones like the minimum wage, tax credits for college tuition, implementing all of the outstanding 9/11 commission recommentdations, etc. They will consolidate their gains and not take up controversial issues that could compromise their freshman class.

CFR and the power of incumbency make it a lot harder but with good candidates in the Districts and a strong Presidential win it is possible to pick up 15 of these and flip the US House back to us. It will be difficult to do but not impossible.

I would love that to be the case, but I think it is unrealistic to believe that we can take back the House in 2008. We will have to fight to keep what we have. A lot will depend on who is the GOP nominee for President, economic conditions, the war in Iraq and the WOT, and what kind of challengers we can find to take the Dems on. It took the Dems twelve years to get the House back. We are not going to do it in two.