When Will the Tsunami of Foreclosures Hit?

MSN.com Real Estate ^ | 9/5/2006 | Charles DuBow

[ex-Texan]

With millions of adjustable-rate mortgages about to reset this fall, experts expect a wave of foreclosures by Americans in every income bracket. Here's why they could soar in late 2006 and beyond:

Those easy-mortgage chickens are coming home to roost.

This fall the adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that millions of Americans took out during the recent housing boom will be reset, and many homeowners will see their monthly mortgage payments shoot up by as much as 20%. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, of all mortgages financed in 2005, 36% were ARMs -- the highest ever.

This is a matter of concern because ARMs are typically initially made at a lower rate and then increase after a fixed period of time, usually one, three, five, seven or 10 years, after which the rate will more closely reflect current rates. As interest rates increase, mortgage payments increase. Between $400 billion and $500 billion in ARMs are due to be reset by the end of 2006. The following year will be even more dramatic, when more than $1.5 trillion will be reset.

For many Americans, this is scary news, if hardly unexpected. * * * [M]any of them are finding themselves stuck in a house they may soon no longer be able to afford, and, as the real estate market peters out, there's little they can do about it. * * *

Unprecedented situation:

* * * A major concern is that the number of ARMs issued at subprime rates to borrowers with lower credit ratings is not known. "We know that ARMs default at a higher rate than fixed, and subprimes default at higher rates than primes," says Sharga. "Never have so many ARMs reset at the same time. There is no precedent for it."

[capitalist229]

the next market for quick profits will be . .

Commodities are still in the early phases of a secular bull market.

BUMP

[Mad Dawgg]

"Funny thing isn't it -- kids don't ask for ponies anymore. They ask for electronics and clothing."

Good Point.

On Edit:

Bush needs to stop outsourcing and fix the borders and stop charging so much for gas and make it so I can have living wage and free health care etc.

Oh yeah and I want an pony Ipod also.

[Dr. Eckleburg]

I agree. I've lived long enough now to realize that real estate moves in cycles. In Calfiornia, it's two steps forward and one step back, ever-inching upward.

[Protagoras]

[M. Espinola]

This is a very interesting topic, one the vast majority of Americans are not aware of. Great graphics & data!

[woofie]

Im afraid this will result in a huge tent city....we will all have to rebuild outhouses and live in garages with roaches

[Marie]

Yeah, so you saved $9000. Wouldn't that extra security of knowing that you could have stayed in the house forever been worth it?

Well, noooo. Actually, we *had* to move. Staying in the house forever was never an option. When we moved to Arizona we had three choices: we could wait 6+ months for an opening then move into on-post housing, we could rent a house for $1200 a month (plus utilities), or we could buy. We choose to buy, invest in the house and property, then sell and actually make some money. Getting an ARM freed up more money to fix up the place. With the savings, we put in two decks, an extra out building and remodeled the bathroom. (The kitchen and landscaping cost even more.)

Once we moved to a house that we *could* stay in forever, we got a 15 year fixed. *Now* we have the security of being able to stay in a house forever. (Yeay!)

[Always Right]

I know, I was trying to drive the point home that there are lots of cases where an ARM makes sense.

[investigateworld]

"Cry "Recession!" and let slip the vultures of opportunity."

[investigateworld]

I meant to include the entire post: Don't want you to feel left out ;^)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To: TChris Cry "Recession!" and let slip the vultures of opportunity. 9 posted on Tuesday, September 05, 2006 2:06:19 PM by 1rudeboy [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies | Report Abuse]

[1rudeboy]

Holy thread necro, Batman.

[Southack]

"Yup, if we'd listened to our self-proclaimed maven of real estate, we wouldn't have purchased homes during the past four years and would have missed out on the incredible increases in value." - Mase

How'd that work out for ya?

[Southack]

"the house next door to mine is a 3 bedroom, 1200 sq. foot stucco shack that just sold to a family of 5 for well over $500K. And that is with prices going down." -npg

Has it been foreclosed on yet?

[Southack]

"There will be plenty of investors to pick up foreclosures and no tsunami." -zek157

Still standing by your above comment?

[Toddsterpatriot]

Is your house worth more now than in 2003?

[Southack]

No, mine is right at 2001/2002 values.

[Toddsterpatriot]

That’s terrible. Would you be better off if you had rented since 2003?

[Southack]

Marginal either way. Not really a concern for me personally.

[investigateworld]

LOL!!!!!

[Toddsterpatriot]

So you wouldn’t have saved tons of money if you followed the advice of the blogpimp?