Even as I type, the final battles of the summer are raging between NATO troops and Taliban fighters. However, some key point need to be reviewed and I currently have the time to summarize them.
Taliban Establish a Safe Haven
In the spring, the main fighting was between Pakistani forces and Taliban/AQ in the mountainous regions of Waziristan. Here, Taliban and AQ forces have found support from many tribes who have controlled the region for years and are fiercely independent of the Pakistani government. This safe haven would provide a base to strike back into Afghanistan in an effort to regain a foot hold in the country and reverse the democratic trend of the country. By early summer, the Pakistani troops were adequately blocked out of the region, permitting Taliban forces to focus their attention on establishing their influence in southern Afghanistan.
Taliban Summer Offensive
The Taliban had some early gains against Afghanistan forces and moved into southern portions of the country adjacent to their Pakistani bases. These attacks were on a large scale and more conventional than the small scale hit and run seen in the past. At the same time, Taliban attempted to duplicate the Iraqi terrorist use of IEDs against US/Coalition forces and Afghanistan government. While troublesome, these IED attacks were not significant.
The US and coalition forces (including Afghani units) began their counter attacks by June. Rather than melt back into the hills as they had done before, Taliban remained in larger groups and stood their ground more. This resulted in some significant clashes, however once US airpower arrived on scene, the Taliban stands resulted in high causality rates for the terrorists and they were forced back. Not learning from this, Taliban continued to try to move in larger formations, yielding bigger targets for airstrikes and resulting in more Taliban causalities. Thus the ‘great success’ touted by the MSM would be considered disastrous if it had occurred with US forces.
Switch Over To NATO
Perhaps much of the fight lead by the Taliban was an effort to disrupt the taking over of security operations from the US by NATO forces. The thought being that NATO would be less likely to try to force them from territory gained than the US would.
As operations have switched over to NATO, the Taliban discovered that they were facing an opponent not as well equipped as the US forces and suffering from even a greater lack of commitment to the war effort than US forces. This caused the Taliban to become bolder and more aggressive. NATO forces have called for additional forces in the face of this increased aggression. The minor successes the Taliban have had against NATO so far have been bought at a great loss of Taliban fighters. It now also appears that NATO has gained the upper hand has the summer season is quickly changing to winter. Taliban elements are being forced back into Pakistan and I anticipate that southern Afghanistan will return to a much lower level of combat soon.
Pakistan Capitulates to Taliban
Probably the most significant turn of events is the ‘treaty’ between the Pakistani government and the tribes, Taliban and AQ present in the Waziristan region. The failure of Pakistan to pursue the fight indicates that the Taliban and AQ base in Pakistan is more secure than before. However, this may make them more vulnerable to cross-border strikes by Coalition forces with ‘token’ opposition by President Musharraf. Unless this is altered and Pakistan once again tries to deny the Taliban use of the region, then the stage is set for years worth of summers like this years. On a longer term basis, this decision by Musharraf may take some of the fundamentalist heat off him for a while.
Long Term Outlook
I expect the NATO forces to continue to push the Taliban back, although less efficiently as US forces. Winter will see Taliban regrouping and preparing for next summer, only this time with out the interference from Pakistan. An uncertain variable is the extreme losses inflicted on the Taliban this summer. They lost hundreds of fighters in the attempt to maneuver in larger formations and were sitting ducks for air attacks. It apparently didn’t affect this year’s recruitment of fighters, but how long can they continue to lead with their chin. NATO will be better prepared (hopefully) for next summer’s offensive, and if the Taliban continue as they have, they will again suffer great losses for very limited gains. It has been estimated that the Taliban suffered 20-30 causalities for every causality inflicted on US/Coalition forces. In recent fighting, an Australian unit reportedly killed about 150 in one battle. Clearly, these kinds of losses cannot be sustained for any extended period with any hope of winning back Afghanistan. Barring any surprises, it appears that the Taliban capabilities were maxed out this summer and that they will not be able to do any better than this summer next year. They may make some early gains, only to lose them and a lot of fighters as the season goes forward.
A Lot Of Hype And A Lot Of Hot Air
In short, the reporting of the gains by the Taliban were greatly over inflated and unsustainable. The gain of a more secure safe haven in Pakistan is not a good thing in the long run and ensure a repeat of this summer’s action.
THANK YOU Godzilla for this summary.
There's plenty more to eliminate (the sooner - the better)!
Snip: The Harakat ul-Mujahedin was estimated to have recruited about 5,000 volunteers and sent them into Afghanistan. The recruitment was funded by money from supporters in Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia (including Osama bin Ladin).
Ping
BUMP
A DEADLY KINDNESS
AT GITMO, PC RULES LET QAEDAS PLOT ON
RICHARD MINITER
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/a_deadly_kindness_opedcolumnists_richard_miniter.htm
_________________________________________________
September 15, 2006 -- Former White House press secretary James Brady and his wife, Sarah, whose lives forever changed when he was wounded in the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan, are warning that a controversial movie depicting the shooting of President Bush might inspire a real-life copycat if it’s shown in the United States.
BRADYS WARN OF W.-SLAY FLICK
http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/bradys_warn_of_w__slay_flick_regionalnews_andy_soltis.htm
_________________________________________________________
War on Terror
Al-Qaida threatens France
http://www.suntimes.com/output/terror/cst-nws-france15.html
____________________________________________________
Hynes to Obama: Run for president
http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-prez15.html
___________________________________________________