Posted on 08/09/2006 6:08:31 PM PDT by Jameison
Yesterday I wrote, "For what it's worth - and it's not much - my guess/prediction in today's Democratic Senate primary is Ned Lamont by a small margin - say, 51-49 or 52-48." With 98 percent of the precincts reporting, it's Lamont 51.79 percent, Lieberman 48.21 percent. Feeling my oats, I'm now going to predict that between now and Election Day you're going to see polls showing Lamont up big. And yet, he's doomed.
Let's do some math. According to state records, Connecticut has 1.95 million active registered voters as of last year, of whom 653,055 were registered as Democrats, about 33.4 percent. Registered Republicans amount to 427,803, or 21.9 percent, and unaffiliated voters number the largest chunk, 867,761, about 44.4 percent.
Last night, Lamont got a bit more than half of the Democrats to vote for him. His supporters will contend that Democrats will abandon Lieberman in droves. (I'm somewhat skeptical - if you're motivated enough to show up on primary day and vote for him against Lamont in August, either because you really like Lieberman or because you really don't like Lamont, what will change your mind in the 90 days until Election Day?)
Let's give Lamont just about the best case scenario. (For the sake of this exercise assuming turnout will be roughly equal percentage turnout rate among Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated. If anyone has a plausible argument that one of these groups won't show up on Election Day, let me know.) Let's say a significant number of Lieberman supporters abandon him now that he's an independent. Let's say about 20 percent, and let's assume that they all decide to support Lamont.
That gives Lamont just under 60 percent of the Democratic vote, about 20 percent of the electorate. Lieberman is left with just over 40 percent of the Democratic vote, about 13.3 percent of the electorate.
Now let's be really generous regarding the unaffiliated. Let's assume that 45 percent of the unaffiliated support the Democratic nominee, Lamont. (I think this is generous, since Lamont's argument is that he's a true-blue Democrat, less independent and less centrist.) This gives him another 19.9 percent of the total electorate. Let's give Lieberman, who's always done well among this group, 55 percent, and let's assume the Republican candidate, Alan Schlesinger, gets none, giving Joe 24.4 percent of the electorate. (Yes, I'm underestimating independent/noaffiliated support for Schlesinger, but probably not by much.)
This brings us to a 39.9 percent to 37.7 percent lead of Lamont over Lieberman. Joe would need to make up that 2.2 percent from among the 21 percent of the state voters who are registered Republicans. In other words, Lieberman would need to carry about 10.4 percent of the state's GOP voters to eke out a win (and presuming that Lamont does not get any significant support from Connecticut Republicans).
I imagine Joe can win 10.4 percent of Republicans in his sleep. Earlier in the year, 75 percent of Connecticut Republicans were willing to give Lieberman another term.
To win the Senate race, Lamont needs either a) more than 20 percent of Lieberman's supporters to abandon him and switch to Lamont b) more than 45 percent of unaffiliated voters to support him or c) less than 11 percent of Republicans to vote for Lieberman. I suppose yesterday's results show that things can change quickly, but right now those scenarios look awfully unlikely.
"So he voted for the war. Are we going to have another war vote?
No!"
Before the WOT is over there will be many "war votes".
If he has no core beliefs and his only interest is being in the Senate. Then he will move to the right. Because if he goes back to the Senate, he will have been voted in by the independents and the Republicans, which means his future votes in the senate will reflect more of that constituency.
My dad says the Republican party up there is giving him about 15% in internal polls.
Sure we should get more anti-war Democrats into the Senate. Brilliant. You are probably a fantastic tactician.
He may win, but Lieberman will not become a Republican. He's already said he'll caucus with the Dems if he wins.
I think if Joe Lieberman runs as an independent, rather than as a so-called "independent Democrat," he will win.
For example, if he appears with a mix of Republicans and Democrats at rallies ... e.g., Ed Koch + Rudy Guiliani ... and talks about the need for a strong centrist position on the War on Terror, and not just be another party hack on judicial nominees, and somebody who can work with the Republicans to fashion legislation that can break Democratic fillibusters in the Senate.
Now, with regard to which party he will caucus with if he is elected, he should say he will be an independent, and will consider what each party offers to him in order to join their caucus. In other words, if the Republicans offer to allow him to bring his seniority with him, he might join with the Republicans, as an independent.
If he caucuses with the Republicans, he'd definitely be a "RINO"-type, but would better than Chaffee from Rhode Island, and might be just about as good as Snowe from Maine.
Furthermore, since he will have burned his bridges with the Democratic Party, he will be free to be Joe again, and not the thing he became when he ran for Vice President.
I agree completely.
I have a stupid question....
If polls "Say" that 86% of Democrats are against the war, how did Leiberman get 48% of the CT. Dem vote?????
Hit back at them with five times the firepower. No war declaration or vote of congress necessary to turn N. Korea into a Rock. No change or them firing back because they will be extinct.
Great point! I thought I was the only conservative nauseated by all of this drooling over this leftist moron.
That might be so!??!
But at the end of the day, NO matter how you try to slice it, soreman is an arch-liberal and will ALWAS vote in that direction!!!
Not only anti-war but anti-American. There will be many more votes concerning our nation's security in the upcoming years. Any conservative who doesn't understand the importance of keeping people like Lamont out of the senate are cutting off their noses to spite their faces. National security is THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE!!!! Everything else is a distant second. Without our security we will not be able to debate other issues. That is why getting Lieberman elected is so important.
As if Lamont won't be even more liberal with the added distinction of being anti-defense. Use your head, it's either the pro-defense Lieberman or the anti-defense Lamont. Choose wisely.
In afghanastan we actually used TROOPS. I'm talking about doing what we've never had the balls to do before.
If N. Korea tries to nuke us, NUKE THEM BACK!!!!
Geesh, what are we afraid of??? The international reaction? Screw them!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.