I guess it depends on the military and political situation once the operations in the Bint Jubayl district is over. Are there still rockets coming in? Is there a growing anti-Hezbullah coalition in Beirut? Have the UN/EU/Lebanese govt come up with a sensible peace plan? (The latter is highly unlikely.)
It is a high-stakes game on all sides, but a slow but steady progression by the IDF, and no willingness by Hezbollah to hand in their weapons, and a stalemate on the peace-making front (I don't really mean stalemate, more dearth of ideas) could give the IDF green light to continue into the Bekaa.
There are some good signs - all the pundits have been saying that an Israeli invasion would breed more terrorists. Not so sure. Rake posted this to me:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1671099/posts - talking about Hizbullah.
The unit has been able to recruit reserves, but MI has noticed that it has run into difficulty convincing members of the terror group who reside in northern Lebanon to travel south to participate in the fighting.
All the terrorists up north have heard how it's going in the south and now they suddenly have "car trouble."
Maybe a real bloody loss for Hezbollah will change the correlation of forces in Lebanon drastically.
(Personally I think the chances of that happening would be enhanced if the IDF followed the advice of olde north church and put the heads of slain Hezbollah terrorists on spikes, but that will of course never happen, or pyramids of their skulls like the Mongols did wit their vanquished enemies.)
OK, let back from fancy flights; I am well aware that the whole story may end up in the way you fear - with a sudden cessation of fighting, leaving Hezbollah safe in Beirut and the Bekaa, and with another weenie UN/EU force to "enforce" the cease-fire.
A golden opportunity would then have been lost.
"I guess it depends on the military and political situation once the operations in the Bint Jubayl district is over. Are there still rockets coming in? Is there a growing anti-Hezbullah coalition in Beirut? Have the UN/EU/Lebanese govt come up with a sensible peace plan? (The latter is highly unlikely.)"
Not sure how long it will take to quiet Bint Jubayl, but there seems to be no let up in rocket fire (approx 100 today), no anti-Hizbullah coalition of note being reported and definetly no sensible peace plan from UN/EU/Lebanon. I predict if we get some weak international force patroling the border with no enforcement capabilities then Olmert is and should be out