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Hizbulla Anti-Naval Capability and Iranian Supplied Toys

Much is still unclear regarding the exact nature and extent of the attack that crippled an Israeli Corvette yesterday. The known facts include:

1. Ship was struck in the stern helipad area taking the ship out of action. This is the first time an Israeli vessel has had that happen to it IIRC.
2. Hizbulla success and timing matched the leader's audio announcement.

Initial thought was that a UAV loaded with explosives (about 100-180 lbs) was able to strike the ship. This theory was adjusted later with the rumor that the UAV was equiped with a Raad anti-tank missile (not to be confused with the Raad used against Haifa). This is a set-up similar to our Predator drones using Hellfire missiles.

More reports suggest that it was an Iranian variant of the Silkworm anti-ship missile (C-802). This alledgedly was launched with Iranian military at the controls.

What are the possible answers?

A loaded UAV would be questionable because the AA guns of the Corvette should have been able to take it out, but the reported extent of destruction is comptable.

A standoff shot using anti-tank missiles could better account for the two rocket report, the first missing, second hitting. This would be a huge technological advance for Hizbolla/Iran to control such a sophicated weapons platform. Major question would be could the UAV carry the weight of the rockets and supporting equipment? Again, extent of damages is what would have been expected.

A silkworm variant is very scary. Normal Silkworms deployed by Iran in the Persian Gulf area are pretty fixed facilities with a definite footprint that is detectable from the air. The system here, if used, appears to be a more portable, truck mounted one, with perhaps a slightly smaller missile. The reports associated with this system indicated that the Corvette would have been sunk but for the actions of the 4 missing crewmen. Reports have two of these missiles being launched, one on a high transjectory, the second on a sea skimming route. The high missile missed, the second didn't. If this report is correct, then Iran has provided a significantly advanced weapon for Hizbolla to use and the people to run it. This brings greater concern in regards to Hizbolla warnings that they have more "surprizes" instore for Israel. Syria has access to the WMD transferred there by Iraq by Saddam. If Hizbolla has gotten their hands on it, it could get really messy really fast.

Of the three options, the one closest to Hizbolla technological capabilities is the HE loaded UAV. However, in light of the evidence of other direct Iranian involvement, the C-802 scares the heck out of me. Being mobile, it could have escaped Israeli detection. It would also play into the Hizbolla PR as a Corvette has limited defense against such a significant weapon.

Shaping of the battlefield

Israel is using their airforce to isloate the battlefield and take out key facilities. This is allowing the called up groundforces time to assemble and deploy to assembly areas in N. Israel in preparation for the impending ground assault.

The initial shock and success of the Hizbolla rocket attacks have significantly declined. Since these are unguided rockets, the initial launching points were carefully selected and targets calculated for high success rate. However, Israeli counter battery fire appears to be removing these sites from use, as well as attriting fireing crews. Rocket attacks overnight appear to have a wider degree of missing their intended targets, indicating that they are trying to shoot from non-planned locations to prevent preemptive strikes by the Israelies.

Once the battlefield has been adequately shaped by the IAF, I expect Israel to launch a two pronged attack. The first would be a fast mechanized/armor sweep to the north and then sweeping to the east and west, setting up blocking positions to prevent reinforcement from the north and east as well as prevent escape to those directions. The second prong will be the main ground assault to crush Hizbolla units trapped by the other forces.

The start of the ground campaign will be dangerous. IF Hizbolla has its hands on chemical munitions, I would expect them to use them here to stall the Israeli assault. This provides the greatest distance between Hizbolla and Israeli forces provided Hizbolla does not have protective gear (kinda hard to seal a mask with that radical beard). Hizbolla/Iranian longer range assets, such as the Raad rockets could be used to send chemicals deep into Israel. Note yesterday's concerns that Iranian rocket assets that could reach to Tel Aviv. If these are equiped with chemical munitions, the gloves come off.

Syrian / Iranian involvement

Right now, apart from setting Hizbolla up with some nasty toys, has been only cheering from the sidelines. The arab world is cold to lukewarm in their support. Syria doesn't appear to be postured to exploit the situation militarily at the moment (judging from their suprise to the IAF buzz of Damascus last week). Iran is using Syria as a shield and playing their puppet game with Hizbolla. That Iranian military is present alongside Hizbolla indicates that Iran is calling the shots, much to the dismay of Syria who may catch the brunt of any Israeli reprisals.

Should any chemical munitions be used by Hizbolla, Syria will be hit hard. if they can be linked more closely to Iran, or if Iran begins to actively threathen the Gulf, this may be America's cue and excuse to hit Iran - since they supplied the chemicals to their proxy - Hizbolla. If Syrian forces are still in garrison, the strikes by Israel will be substantially more effective.

What I'm watching out for -

Deeper rocket strikes into Israel
Use of chemical munitions
Deployment / dispersal of Syrian ground units.
Redeployments of the 3 - 4 US carrier battle groups from the Pacific towards the Persian Gulf
Start of the Israeli ground offensive.

ON THE NET...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=israel

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=iran
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=syria
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=gaza

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=lebanon

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=hezbollah
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=hizbullah

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NOTE: The following text is a quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1666319/posts

Israel: New Hezbollah rockets can reach Tel Aviv and Be'er Sheva
Haaretz ^ | 07/15/2006 | Haaretz Staff

Posted on 07/15/2006 12:27:13 PM PDT by gotribe

Israel believes Hezbollah has missiles that can hit most of Israel, and which could even strike Be'er Sheva under optimum conditions.

Iran supplied Hezbollah with solid-fuel, Zelzal-2 missiles with a 200-km range, but these are not very accurate, since they do not have a self-guidance system.

The Zelzal-2 missiles, intended to strike broad targets such as communities and cities, are equipped with explosive warheads weighing up to 600 kilograms. The missiles are a later version of the Zelzal-1 missiles, which Iran first displayed in September 2005 at a military parade in Tehran, together with six Shihab-3 missiles....

(Excerpt) Read more at Haaretz ...

(Excerpt) Read more at haaretz.com ...

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Also ON THE NET...

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=21563_Iranian_Revolutionary_Guard_in_Lebanon&only

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/2006/07/012260print.html

http://counterterrorismblog.org/2006/07/hezbollah_missile_strikes_uav_or_ground_based.php

http://michellemalkin.com/archives/005544.htm

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http://www.foxnews.com

http://www.memri.org/iran.html
http://www.memri.org/syria.html
http://www.memri.org/jihad.html
http://www.memritv.org

http://www.internet-haganah.com
http://www.sofir.org