Well you'd have to assume that the majority would vote for a minority mmeber to become the speaker. We have no prime minister, so our speaker is somewhat like the prime minister, but without the head of government role. It would be very unlikely that the majority party would give this job to someone not their own.
When discouraged conservatives say they are going to send a message to their R congressman, by a protest vote, because of the weak voting record in Congress of said congressman, I remind them that the most important vote said congressman makes is the vote for Speaker and Majority Leader. After that, it is up to us to tell them what we want, but if they are in the Minority we have NO say.