[A CA Guy]

The odds are not as against us in a more general election, but highly so in a special election where mostly all the unions will get out the vote.
In a tiny turn out, having all the government unions come out to vote can be easily 35% of all the vote IMO.

We need to let the government employee unions spend themselves into trouble and we'll get them within a couple of elections I think.

[California Patriot]

re: special elections and turnout ...

You make a good point. Had the special election been about a candidate, or a social issue like immigration or abortion or guns, we might well have won. But when a special election is about a union-related issue, the union can brainwash its members and the people who are close to them. In this case, unions convinced people that their jobs, salaries and pensions were threatened. (Americans are always nervous about their economic prospects anyway.)
The intensity of self-interest on their side overcame the less-intense interest in the common good on our side.

Not hard to see in advance. The time to talk about the common good is in a regularly scheduled election when the marginal folks are more likely to be voting anyway.