[jeffers]

The 0200 and 0300 EST plots extrapolate to landfall 3 miles south of Marco Island. I think the thing that has impressed me most about this storm is how consistent the NHC projections have been and how well they have matched reality. I think the largest deviation I've seen so far has been about 7 miles before landfall on the Yucatan. From a regional view and higher, seven or eight projections might as well all be one track.

[geopyg]

see post 1608. the forecast 90hrs ago had it within 1 min lat/long of forecasted point now.!!

[steveegg]

I think the thing that has impressed me most about this storm is how consistent the NHC projections have been and how well they have matched reality. I think the largest deviation I've seen so far has been about 7 miles before landfall on the Yucatan. From a regional view and higher, seven or eight projections might as well all be one track.

Especially with the models all over the place. There's a nice spread in landfall predictions between the 6 models in the gif above.