Posted on 09/18/2005 12:06:50 PM PDT by Lessismore
Election forecasts based on initial German vote counts indicate that Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats have edged out Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats. Both parties, however, have done worse than in 2002. The question as to who will govern Germany remains open.
One thing is clear. The German voters no longer want a governing coalition pairing Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats (SPD) and Joschka Fischer's Greens. Forecasts based on initial results by the public television station ARD indicate that Schröder's SPD received just 34 percent of the vote -- 4.5 percentage points lower than the last elections in 2002.
Yet while few expected the SPD to do well, the results delivered by the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) under Angela Merkel seem set to be much lower than the party had hoped. ARD forecasts indicate that Merkel's party just barely managed to edge out the SPD, receiving just 35.2 percent of the vote and thus 3.3 percent less than in 2002.
In other words, despite months of surveys indicating that Merkel would become Germany's first-ever woman chancellor, her path may not be as clear cut as she had hoped. Merkel had hoped to be able to form a coalition with the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) under Guido Westerwelle. Despite the FDP's surprising result of 10.2 percent -- against just 7.4 percent in 2002 elections -- the two parties together are far from the 50 percent they would need to form a governing coalition.
The Green Party under Joschka Fischer looks to have received 8.2 percent of the vote (0.4 percent lower than in 2002) and the newly-formed Left Party under Gregor Gysi and Oskar Lafontaine will become the fifth party in the Bundestag, Germany's parliament, with 8.4 percent of the vote according to forecasts.
Even worse for Merkel's CDU, her party looks to have received its third-worst result in its history and is far behind even its less-than-impressive 38.5 percent in the 2002 elections. Now, Merkel must start the process of casting about for coalition partners. On Sunday evening, she said she would begin talks with all of the major parties except for the Left Party.
One of the most obvious possibilities would be the forming of a so-called grand coalition -- a government created by pairing Germany's two largest parties, the CDU and the SPD. Such a pairing would be Germany's first grand coalition since 1966 to 1969. Given the fact that both parties are well below their 2002 results -- the SPD received 38.5 percent in the last election -- it would also be a coalition of the losers.
Indeed, despite leading a party with the best results on Sunday, it isn't even clear that Angela Merkel will become chancellor. Social Democrat party leader Franz Müntefering on Sunday claimed that the election results show that German voters want Schröder to continue as chancellor. Despite the seeming absurdity of the statement, mathematically at least, Schröder's SPD could form a coalition government with the Green Party and the Left Party. The SPD and the Greens, however, have both said they would not consider governing with the Left Party.
The other possibility which could be enough put Schröder back in the chancellery would be a so-called stoplight coalition -- a partnership of the SPD (red), the Greens and the FDP (yellow.) While such a coalition has formed governments in some of Germany's states in the past, FDP head Westerwelle said on Sunday that he would not be available for such a "stoplight" grouping. "We will continue to clearly pursue our course," said Westerwelle. "If there aren't enough votes for Black-Yellow (CDU-FDP) then we'll be in the opposition."
A combination of the CDU, FDP and Greens would also be enough for a parliamentary majority but is considered highly unlikely.
"Americans should be a lot more interested in enlightening the Germans than giving up on them. I find it to be contrary to your nature. What is a matter with you?"
Iraq ring a bell?
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