[Strategerist]

Howlin,

Ah, you and Diddle E. Squat already covered what I just posted, with more pithy language (which I agree with, btw, it's pure Bovine Scatology that they didn't know they were going to be hit till Sunday.)

Just one correction..model run times are based on when the last data input came in.

The 12Z models from Friday had their last data input from 8AM Eastern time Friday..the models BEGIN running on their supercomputers right after 8AM, and take 4-6 hours to "run"...the model tracks showing the big shift west in the track were avaliable to see from 12PM to 2PM on Friday (and I began posting about them then) and the NHC track shift incorporating the new info came out at 5PM. They had to wait to see if it was a model "hiccup" so the full final shift by NHC wasn't until the 11PM Advisory on Friday.

[Howlin]

with more pithy language

What can I say? :-)

[Alberta's Child]

I think some folks are getting too hung up on the predictions about the track of the storm. The track of the storm isn't the issue here (since New Orleans was "spared" the brunt of the storm itself). The real problem is the flooding -- which would have been a concern as long as the hurricane tracked through any large portion of the Mississippi River watershed.

We may not have even seen the worst of it. With the remnants of the hurricane making her way up along the west side of the Appalachian Mountains through Ohio, the storm run-off will be making its way down the Mississippi for days.