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Not at all. The National Hurricane Center et al as late as Saturday night had this storm centered on Mobile/Pensacola.

Actually, you are wrong:

To: Howlin

For future reference, this repeated line by the mayor and governor that "We went to bed Friday night being told it was a Florida storm, and woke up Saturday to find us threatened" to excuse why they waited so long to start the evacuation plan is total bullshit. (excuse my French)

Friday 4pm NO time report from the NWS, warns of a significant shift west, Mississippi landfall (88.5 on the grid, NO is 90), and possible more movement expected (post #388):

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1471043/posts?page=388#388

By at least Friday 6pm computer models were converging on LA (post #478):

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1471043/posts?page=478#478

Turns out those computer models had been run at 2pm (post #526):

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1471043/posts?page=526#526

In fact some computer models run at 7am NO time Friday had predicted a NO hit(post #224):

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1471043/posts?page=224#224

So unless the gov and mayor went to bed Friday afternoon, they knew then that it likely was headed their way.

But wait, lookee here, Blanco declares a state of emergency about 8pm Friday night. Why do that if they were told it was going to be a Florida hurricane? (post #585)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1471043/posts?page=585#585

2,374 posted on 08/28/2005 5:30:44 PM EDT by Diddle E. Squat

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Howlin,

Ah, you and Diddle E. Squat already covered what I just posted, with more pithy language (which I agree with, btw, it's pure Bovine Scatology that they didn't know they were going to be hit till Sunday.)

Just one correction..model run times are based on when the last data input came in.

The 12Z models from Friday had their last data input from 8AM Eastern time Friday..the models BEGIN running on their supercomputers right after 8AM, and take 4-6 hours to "run"...the model tracks showing the big shift west in the track were avaliable to see from 12PM to 2PM on Friday (and I began posting about them then) and the NHC track shift incorporating the new info came out at 5PM. They had to wait to see if it was a model "hiccup" so the full final shift by NHC wasn't until the 11PM Advisory on Friday.

That's not how I see (or saw as I watched this intensely) the time line...

Friday August 26th:
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.(NHC report)
Strike probabilities at that time were highest from Apalachicola to Pensacola Florida with diminishing probabilities moving east. As many people, the mayor included, said: on Friday night this was a Florida storm.

It was the 11 PM EDT NHC forecast and discussion that began to center the forecast west, closer to areas around the LA/MS coast, however strike probabilities were still essentially equal from Pensacola across to NOLA.

The Saturday 5 AM advisory narrowed the prediction to the MS/LA line considerably.

Saturday 10AM CDT the NHC recommends issuing a Hurricane Watch for SE LA. However, as can be seen from the concurrent advisories, the Hurricane Watch was not converted to a Hurricane warning until 10 PM CDT Saturday night, at which time Katrina was still a CAT III Hurricane. The Strike Probabilities did not make NOLA the clear center until 4 PM Saturday.

Saturday August 27th, before the NHC issued a formal Hurricane Warning, the Mayor and Governor called for a voluntary evacuation of NOLA, suspended tolls, and put in place the Contra Flow plan.

Sunday 1 AM The NHC identifies Katrina as a Cat IV storm.

Sunday 7 AM the NHC identifies Katrina as a CAT V storm.

Sunday morning August 28th the voluntary evacuation was made mandatory, shelters were opened, and the LANG was mobilized (some orders to report had gone out the night before).

Now some want to blame the politicians for not doing more, or for not doing more sooner. Several parishes issued mandatory evacuation orders prior to Sunday, but people still chose not to listen. Sunday Night, with Katrina bearing down and the doomsday scenario looming - after the Mayor had called Katrina the storm people had feared for years - people were partying on Bourbon St and swearing at those who questioned their judgment in staying (live on FNC no less) - but, of course, it is the politicians fault that people show bad judgment. Is Haley Barbour responsible for the idiots who were surfing the storm in Gulf Shores, or is Bob Riley responsible for the same type of idiots in Orange Beach? Of course not. (Oh wait, those are Republicans, we like blaming Democrats, so lets focus on NO and LA in general.)

In the modern era we have access to unprecedented amounts of information, but what has not changed is that people remain responsible for what they do with that information. I find no malice and nothing that I would call negligence in the reactions and policies of those responsible for public safety. I see great amounts of negligence in those responsible for their own safety. There was time - the warnings were issued. Many people simply chose not to listen. So now we will help, and we will pray. And some, as always, will blame before they do anything else.

At what point should the evacuation order have been made mandatory? At a 15% strike probablity? 20%? 40%? Its not as easy as it sounds from the couch.