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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: Spiff; Howlin

Ain't Google Earth great?!

BTW, graphics are fine with me, but then I'm DSL. Who knows what I'll be after Katrina!


521 posted on 08/26/2005 4:55:04 PM PDT by realpatriot (Some spelling errers entionally included!)
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To: silentknight

"Anyone using this or any other hurricane thread for important information is prob asking for trouble."

I follow each and every one of Nauti's hurricane's threads and I will say this.......people posting here are 2-3 three hours ahead of local and National forecasts, models, changes, etc. Pay close attention to some of these posters here, they seem to have a real good clue. I don't know where or how they cull their information and don't care, I just know they are ahead of the National guys. Go back and re-read this thread and you will see some were clearly calling for a more westwardly track hours before it was National news. I love these threads!!!


522 posted on 08/26/2005 4:55:27 PM PDT by Prolifeconservative (If there is another terrorist attack, the womb is a very unsafe place to hide.)
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To: Jrabbit

No Problem ... ;o)


523 posted on 08/26/2005 4:55:32 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: onyx
I" crawled under the house one day to have a look at where the basement begins and ends...lol.

You didn't. Please tell me you didn't do that. lol. You are much braver than I. I have only seen two moccasins this year, and they were on the same day, about 10 minutes apart, believe it or not! One was in my neighbor's yard, and the other in the back part of my yard. Thank God for another neighbor who is brave! He dispatched both of them to the happy slinking grounds.

524 posted on 08/26/2005 4:58:38 PM PDT by MagnoliaMS
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To: All
Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 14a...Corrected

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005

 
...Corrected to remove reference to hurricane status in location...

...Katrina gradually moving away from South Florida...

 
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay from Key Largo south and westward to Key West and
the Dry Tortugas.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 24.7 north... longitude 83.3 west or about 100
miles... west of Key West Florida.

 
Katrina continues to move toward the west-southwest near  8 mph.
This motion is forecast to continue this evening.  A gradual turn
toward the west is expected on Saturday.

 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...with higher gusts.
Katrina is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Katrina is forecast to become a category three...major... hurricane
today and on Saturday.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  25 miles... from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to  85
miles.  Sustained winds of tropical storm-force are still occurring
across the lower Florida Keys.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb...28.50 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the southwest coast of Florida in areas of
onshore flow east of Cape Sable... and in Florida Bay.  Storm surge
will gradually subside tonight.

 
Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches
over the lower Florida Keys...with isolated storm total amounts of
15 to 20 inches. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected
over northwestern Cuba...and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected
over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

 
Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight over the
Florida Keys.

 
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...24.7 N... 83.3 W.  Movement
toward...west-southwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...100
mph.  Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Avila

525 posted on 08/26/2005 5:00:31 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Bamm,GFDL, GFS all ran at 2PM. All are predicting Louisiana landfall for what it's worth.

526 posted on 08/26/2005 5:02:20 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: dogbyte12

Ominous. If we go with past experience, the storms have mostly landed east of the models this far out.


527 posted on 08/26/2005 5:05:55 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: dogbyte12
Louisiana landfall

And I gather that the red line, which more-or-less passes over New Orleans, is some kind of an average?

528 posted on 08/26/2005 5:06:01 PM PDT by aBootes
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To: dogbyte12
All are predicting Louisiana landfall for what it's worth.

Spoken like a guy obviously not from Mississippi!

529 posted on 08/26/2005 5:07:14 PM PDT by realpatriot (Some spelling errers entionally included!)
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To: realpatriot

LOL!


530 posted on 08/26/2005 5:07:57 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: aBootes
The orange and blue tracks were done with this morning's data. The other three including the red one were updated this afternoon. These will change again. Anybody near anywhere in the watch zone should be getting prepared. These things can move rapidly. You could go to bed Saturday night feeling safe, and wake up in the morning at center mass.

I am a bit nervous because of flooding. I live on top of a bayou in SE Louisiana. I am enough inland, about 30 miles from the coast not to worry too deeply about catostrophic wind damage, but it will be bad enough if it hits here.

531 posted on 08/26/2005 5:09:30 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: Prolifeconservative

re: westerly track: yes it's interesting that the forcasters are finally moving their forcast west towards New Orleans


532 posted on 08/26/2005 5:09:53 PM PDT by SauronOfMordor
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To: aBootes
The 'average' would be the NHC projected track
533 posted on 08/26/2005 5:10:35 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: SauronOfMordor
its going into new orleans it looks like? as a cat4? oh man:
534 posted on 08/26/2005 5:11:30 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: SauronOfMordor

That may be but the best place for emergecny information is not on freepers. Not saying there isn't great stuff no here...but don't advise people to just get their information from here. That is all I am saying.


535 posted on 08/26/2005 5:11:39 PM PDT by silentknight
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To: dogbyte12
orange and blue tracks were done with this morning's data

Thanks. So there is a genuine westward shift in the models. I will continue to watch from the safety of central Maryland. Wishing you, however, all the best!

536 posted on 08/26/2005 5:13:16 PM PDT by aBootes
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To: realpatriot; Spiff; Chevy Sales

Yes, it is.

After this hurricane, I'm hoping we can have a thread over in Chat where Spiff and some of you guys can teach the rest of us how to use it!


537 posted on 08/26/2005 5:15:33 PM PDT by Howlin (She's here!)
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To: silentknight
That may be but the best place for emergecny information is not on freepers.

This thread points to the official information from NOAA. Something the average person might not know how to get to directly. I think it's a better source than the average local weatherman

538 posted on 08/26/2005 5:15:38 PM PDT by SauronOfMordor
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To: SC Swamp Fox

Possible ... my error message implied I could only load with Explorer .. so I switched to that and it loaded fine.


539 posted on 08/26/2005 5:17:23 PM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: Spiff

Do you have those google maps with a SATELLITE overlay?

Thanks


540 posted on 08/26/2005 5:19:34 PM PDT by silentknight
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