Okay here it is. I warn you it's kinda long, but actually makes some sense:
FROM RW:
I have studied this case closely and believe that some of the simplest things have been overlooked; it is evident that the so-called investigators are not truly interested in finding Natalee or easing your family’s suffering. I believe that there can be no other logical explanation than that the government is both incompetent and most likely engaged in a cover-up over what has happened to your daughter. As for the people on the island being so friendly I do not doubt that is true; however, please precede with caution on those that you trust. Remember the citizens of Aruba have every reason to drag there feet or to simply run out the clock until the media coverage goes away. This case is not one that I believe is going to be solved on forensics, but on old fashion detective work. Based upon all known evidence and facts surrounding this case the following is the most likely scenario on what took place surrounding Natalee’s disappearance. I would encourage your family to investigate or pass this information on to those that you consider proper to seriously investigate her disappearance. Almost all crimes stem from the following factors: money, power, sex and addiction (alcohol, drugs and gambling). At a minimum the crime of kidnapping has taken place; however, we must ask who had the means, motive and opportunity to abduct Natalee.
Who had the opportunity?
It is self evident that the only people that had the opportunity to abduct Natalee were Joran Van der Sloot, Satish and Deepok Kalpoe.
What is the motive and who has that motive?
When looking into Joran’s life it becomes clear that since at least the age of 16, he has been a regular at bars and casinos. Although, for him to this day he remains a minor and it is illegal for him to engage in such activities. The Kalpoe brothers appear to be trying to hang with Joran, therefore engaged in many of the same activities that Joran was engaged in. Shortly, before Natalee’s disappearance Paul Van der Sloot took and failed a test back in Holland that would have made him a full judge; however, with his failing that test he would not only lose his promotion, but forced from his current position. Paul Van der Sloot is a regular gambler as well; in fact the night of May 29, he was gambling at the Holiday Inn’s casino with his minor son (Greta Van Sustern). A family with a gambling habit and a soon to be unemployed head of the household is an explosive combination.
Who had the means?
Joran and the Kalpoe brothers under the direction of Paul Van der Sloot unquestionably had the means to pull this abduction off. Not only does Paul have intimate knowledge of the justice system and friends in high places, but other things would work to their benefit. Targeting a tourist clearly places her family on the outside and most likely would be chalked up to a runaway or just after a short time declared unsolved and the investigation would conclude.
What happened to Natalee in the early morning hours of May 30, and the days that followed?
There is only one thing we can say for sure Natalee got into a gray Honda at about 12:50am on May 30, with the Kalpoe brothers and Joran and there has been no trace of her since. According to family and friends Natalee would not get into a car with three strange men and I find no reason to doubt this claim. There are three logical explanations for her getting into that car. Was she unknowingly drugged? This cannot be dismissed, however there is no evidence to support this and according to her friends she did not appear to be under any type of intoxication. Did she simply have a lapse in judgment? Not likely since according some of her friends they called for her to ride with them, however she said she was getting another ride. There is only one explanation left and it points to the likelihood that these boys set out to abduct a young woman that night. According to friends of Natalee present at the casino where she met Joran he told her he was on vacation there and my have even gone as far to say that he was staying at the Holiday Inn. This may seem trivial; however, it explains why she got into that car. I believe Natalee had established a friendship with Joran and when they were leaving he suggested that they share a cab back to the hotel where they were both staying. Natalee probably thought the car she was getting into was one of the islands unmarked cabs and that they were simply sharing a cab. However, it was not a cab it was the Kalpoe brothers’ car. When Natalee realized that this was not a cab and something was wrong she would have been powerless to get out of that car without them allowing her to.
I would like to make a note of several things. First it is substantially likely that these males went out to kidnap a young woman on that night under the direction of Paul Van der Sloot. Joran was gambling with his father that night who only hours earlier returned from Holland. Why did Paul return to Aruba from Holland when is wife was in Holland for a family function? He wanted some alone time with his son is a likely explanation. It seems very strange that a party guy and ladies man such as Joran would be out on the town with daddy. After all most teenager around his age do not even want to be seen in public with their parents let alone out on the party scene with daddy. That is unless they were plotting a kidnapping or some other sinister explanation.
After Natalee got into the gray Honda at Carlos and Charlie’s we really have no idea where they went or do we? I think the key lies within Beth, who has made it, clear that in her May 31, 3a.m. visit to the Van der Sloot home she felt that Natalee was there or had been there. I believe that this is a clear case of a mothers’ instinct and a mother knowing. Do not discount Beth’s motherly instinct. That is genuine evidence and I believe supports a strong likelihood that Natalee was taken to the Van der Sloot home, after leaving Carlos and Charlie’s. It is very plausible that during the 3a.m. visit Natalee was in that home and the apparent field trip to track down Joran was meant to buy time to move Natalee in case police did enter the home. There is little doubt that the Paul assumed at some point the boys would be question, because witnesses would say that Natalee was last seen leaving with them. That accounts for why these boys were ready with a story when you first spoke with them. However, I say Natalee may have been in the home at the time of your visit for the following reasons. Paul would have thought this abduction out carefully; however, there are several things that he could not have anticipated. First, never could he have imagined that the family of the missing girl would have come knocking on his door so quickly. Once somebody did they had a story that easily put the boys in the clear as we saw with the arrest of the security guards. On the other hand I do not think that he could have counted on such a proactive mother and family that would go through extraordinary measures to find their daughter. Even understanding that many families would go through great measures to find their daughter they probably would not have gotten nearly as far as you have. Why? His influence and the incompetence of the Aruban government would have provided a shield. However, the one thing he could not have counted on was the intense media coverage and outpouring of support from around the world. That has been the one thing that has really put pressure on the government to take some action in this case if it were not for the media I have little doubt that all three would be free tonight; if they would even had been detained in the first place.
Natalee based upon all available evidence was sold or traded away under one of the following scenarios. Paul has either substantially borrowed from a loan shark and when his employment status faltered he needed to repay the loan shark. Natalee was either turned over for his personal use or she was sold into some form of sexual slavery. It is, also possible that the Van der Sloot’s sold Natalee outright for cash to pay back his gambling debts. To respond to critics that say something like this would not happen to an American woman I would like to point out the following. I as an American am not aware of any protective shielding that we have that make us invulnerable to crimes such as sexual slavery in a foreign state. In fact it occurs to me that we as Americans are more likely to have a target on our backs. I do not know if their intentions were to kidnap an American, someone with a physical appearance of Natalee (blonde hair and blue eyes) or just any young woman that they could. However, I believe that Natalee would have been particularly valuable given her all American appearance with blonde hair and blue eyes making her highly priced on the black market.
If you look at the State Department’s website and the 2005 Report on the Trafficking of Persons, you will see that many countries in the nearby area have failing grades when it comes to stopping the trafficking of persons. Aruba may appear to be a low crime nation; however, the DEA has made it clear that it is a stopping point for Colombian drug runners and the island does have a strict financial privacy law that does make it vulnerable to wash dirty money in its banks. I, also suspect that because of the incompetence of the police and financial privacy laws that it is unlikely they have looked into the financial records of the Van der Sloots. I believe that is another way in which the Van der Sloots have gotten lucky. There seems to be the one tract mind that has combined with a naivety of the Aruban government to admit there are criminal enterprises working on the island.
I must confess from nearly day one of this case I have repeatedly been saying this is not what they think it is. It is not an accident, not a runaway, not a suicide, not a date rape/murder and not simply she was slipped something and died of an accidental overdose. I have maintained that this was bigger and more complex. In the nearly seven weeks since there is nothing that has persuaded me to think differently in fact I am only surer now than I was then. There has literally been no trace of Natalee; now people are murdered and they are never found and if this case were in the US, I may take that position but not on Aruba. The island is small and I think it can be said to a near certainly Natalee’s body is not on that island. How about the water? The water has been searched by air and boat; nothing has been found in addition to that you have to figure in swimmers, divers, boaters and commercial ships etc. nothing has been located. Still if one were to put a body in the water it would have to be moved out to sea a considerable distance to ensure that it would not come ashore even then there is a high probability that it would have come ashore. In addition to that there was a very limited opportunity that they would have had to dispose of it and it is unlikely that they would have dealt with a body after your initial visit to the home and a massive search began.
My biggest concern at this point is that searches by the many wonderful volunteer organizations are focusing on the ocean or other locations where a body might be located. However, the only crime we know has been committed is a kidnapping this is no ordinary case and never was. They seem to be working off the statistical probability that Natalee is dead; however, remember if the odds of something are 1 in a million we must remember that the 1 does come up at some point. I go back to the comment “no body, no case” he of all people should know that there is no assured way to dispose of a body. Paul knows that a murder charge could be brought based upon only physical evidence or eye witness testimony. One could not be sure that neither of those would be found and there is only one way to be assured that a body would not be found. When people even in the early days of a disappearance are searching woods and other area they are not looking for a person they are looking for a body. The only reason he could be sure there would be no body is that Natalee was not dead, but alive. The changing story of the three; being in a crime does not mean you are going to stick together as there is no honor among criminals. On the other hand Aruba really does not do plea deals and if one of them were to confess to participating in selling her or some other crime they would be sinking themselves, but there is no reason not to point the figure at each other in an attempt to remove yourself from the hook. After, 116 days for all intents and purposes they will have gotten away with their crimes now it is a matter of running out the clock.
I think there is a substantial chance that Natalee is still alive. I would not discount the possibility she is being held on the island; however, the biggest mistake that seems to have been made is not expanding the search beyond Aruba. With the focus shifting to a murder by these three who ever has her now would have very little to be concerned about. The focus cannot be only in hoping for the parasites to talk or in finding a body that I do think even exists.
Posted by: Eugene Bernat | July 20, 2005 09:28 PM
Okay on to Greta!!
I can find little in this post to disagree with except some minor stuff about body/water......
One thing I can state with certainty....if the tape and hairs coincide with Natalee, it was not an accidental death.....if for no other reason than duct tape is of no use on a corpse.....they do not need to be restrained.
from post # 792
"....also suspect that because of the incompetence of the police and financial privacy laws that it is unlikely they have looked into the financial records of the Van der Sloots. I believe that is another way in which the Van der Sloots have gotten lucky."
Actually, it is possible that if this poster is mostly right, the VDS financial records may well be traceable by the FBI/DEA, when you consider the interest these two agencies have had wrt aruba longterm.....I'll bet you that "PROMIS" software is embedded into the financial systems in aruba......and that if our agencies mentioned consider the scenario of this poster they would make their best effort to look......
Thanks truthluva.