Hurricane Dennis

NHC-NOAA ^ | 6 Jult 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Dennis heading toward the Gulf of Mexico

Caribbean IR Satellite Loop

GOM IR Satellite Loop

[NautiNurse]

Gulf of Mexico--here we go--again.

[dfwgator]

Looks like NOLA could be right in the path. Not good.

[NautiNurse]

[isthisnickcool]

[chemicalman]

Last year Florida...This year Louisiana.

[Types_with_Fist]

Yes. I suppose every Hurricane trajectory HAS to have those to little prongs pointing to New Orleans and Biloxi...:-)

[NautiNurse]

lol--now I am wiping the grin off my face...

[nwctwx]

Eastern United States Weather Forum

[onyx]

I have my Taylor on IM and she said Cayman's weather is still normal: hot and humid. No signs of a storm yet.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the update!

[nwctwx]

No problem, things went as planned this evening afterall. ;) I knew it was only a matter of time till they found those winds.

[NautiNurse]

That was interesting. Initially, they were reporting 39kt in OBS 1 or 2, etc. Thought my eyes were deceiving me.

[Dog Gone]

Hurricane Dennis Special Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2005

...An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates Dennis
has become a hurricane over the central Caribbean Sea...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica...the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border
westward...and portions of eastern Cuba for The Provinces of
Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Dominican Republic
border.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for
portions of central and eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Sancti
Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 6 PM EDT...2200z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 16.1 north... longitude 72.5 west or about 315
miles... 505 km... east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 335
miles... 540 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
...22 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours. On this track...Dennis will be centered near
Jamaica early Thursday.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph...
130 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Dennis a category one
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by a reconnaissance
aircraft is 985 mb...29.09 inches.

Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over southern Hispaniola...Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and the
Cayman Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible
over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 6 PM EDT position...16.1 N... 72.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Dennis Special Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2005


this special advisory is mainly to upgrade Dennis to a hurricane
based on a 79-kt 700 mb flight-level wind that was measured in the
northeast quadrant at 2127z on the outbound leg after passing
through the eye and measuring a central pressure of 985 mb. Wind
radii for 64-kt were included and the 50-kt radii were increased
slightly in the northern semicircle based on the new recon wind
data.

The initial motion estimate remains 295/12. There are no changes to
previous track forecast or reasoning.

No change was made to the previous intensity forecast. However...
recon and satellite data indicate Dennis has become much better
organized during the past couple of hours. If this trend continues
into this evening...then there is the possibility that rapid
intensification could occur for the next 24 hours or so...and
Dennis could reach category 2 hurricane strength before it passes
close to Jamaica in 24 hours.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/2200z 16.1n 72.5w 70 kt
12hr VT 07/0600z 17.0n 74.3w 70 kt
24hr VT 07/1800z 18.4n 76.7w 80 kt
36hr VT 08/0600z 20.0n 79.1w 95 kt
48hr VT 08/1800z 21.4n 81.4w 100 kt
72hr VT 09/1800z 24.0n 84.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 10/1800z 27.5n 86.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 11/1800z 31.0n 88.0w 65 kt...inland

[NautiNurse]

Round and round and round he goes.
Where he makes landfall,
Nobody knows.

[chemicalman]

From the NOAA site:

5 day track

[Dog Gone]

It's going to hit blam's house. They all eventually do.

[My2Cents]

Why is there anything left standing in Cuba?

[NautiNurse]

Yep--at least blam has time to cut the grass again before the
next storm.

[Flyer]

Damn the billion dollars of damage, I want rain!